LITMIR.BIZ

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in charge of the “Division of Military Information” at Manila both before and after the taking of the city. General Bell has done many fine things, in the way of reckless bravery in battle at the critical moment and of bold reconnoitring in campaign, and what he fails to find out about an enemy, or a prospective enemy, is not apt to be ascertainable. In a report bearing date August 29, 1898,4 prepared in anticipation of possible trouble with the Filipinos, he estimated the number of men under arms that Aguinaldo had at between 35,000 and 40,000. This estimate is based by General Bell in his report on the number of guns out in the hands of the Filipinos, which he figures thus:

Captured from Spanish militia	12,500
From Cavite arsenal	2,500
From Jackson & Evans (American merchants trading with Hong Kong)	2,000
From Spanish (captured in battle)	8,000
In hands of Filipinos previous to May 1, 1898	15,000
Total	40,000

      From this number General Bell deducts several thousands as having been recaptured by the Spaniards, or bought in. I at once hear some former comrade-in-arms of the Philippine insurrection say: “Oh, no. They couldn’t have had as many as 40,000 guns, or near that.” I thought the same thing when I first read General Bell’s report on the matter. But he removes the doubt thus: “They are being continually sent away to other provinces.”

We did not understand Aguinaldo’s movements then. All his troops were not around Manila. From what I learned from General Lawton and his staff in 1899, my belief is that Aguinaldo had perhaps 30,000 men with guns around Manila, and out along the railroad, at the time of the outbreak of February 4th. It is idle, of course, at this late date, to claim that the Filipinos were not bent on independence from the first. The matured plans of their leaders, formulated at Hong Kong May 4, 1898, before they ever started the insurrection, preserved in the captured minutes of the meeting already noticed,5 provide the programme to be adopted in the event we should be tempted to keep the islands. In that event, they were prepared against surprise, or any necessity for making new plans, and were agreed to accept war as inevitable. From the first, they made ready for it.

Governmentally and strategically, the Philippine Islands, except Mohammedan Mindanao, which is a separate and distinct problem, may be described very simply and sufficiently as consisting of the great island of Luzon, on which Manila is situated, and the Visayan group.6 We are already familiar with the conditions in Luzon in December, 1898. You hear a great deal about the Philippine archipelago consisting of a thousand and one islands, but there are only eight that are, broadly speaking, worth considering here. The moment a jagged submarine ledge peeps out of the water it becomes an island. And even before that it may wreck a ship. But we are talking about islands that need to be charted on the sea of world politics. The Visayan Islands that really count at all in a great problem such as that we are now considering, are but six in number: Panay, capital Iloilo; Cebu, capital Cebu; Bohol, Negros, Samar, and Leyte.7 Iloilo is some three hundred and odd miles south of Manila, and, besides being the capital of Panay, is the chief port of the Visayas and the second city of the archipelago, Cebu being the third. Under the Spaniards, as now under us, a vessel might clear from either of these places for any part of the world. As we saw in the chapter preceding this, as early as November 18th, Admiral Dewey had cabled Washington that the entire island of Panay was in possession of insurgents, except Iloilo. By the end of December, all the Spanish garrisons in the Visayan Islands had surrendered to the insurgents. (Otis’s Report, p. 61.) Iloilo did not surrender to the insurgents until the day before Christmas. But let us not anticipate.

      December 13th, General Otis received a petition for protection signed by the business men and firms of Iloilo (p. 54), sent of course with the approval of the general commanding the imperilled Spanish garrison. December 14th, he wired Washington for instructions as to what action he should take on this petition, saying, among other things, “Spanish authorities are still holding out, but will receive American troops”; and adding one of his inevitable notes of optimism as to the tameness of Filipino aspirations (at Iloilo) for independence: “Insurgents reported favorable to American annexation.”

General Otis knew the Spanish troops were hard pressed by the insurgents down at Iloilo, and eagerly awaited a reply. President McKinley was then away from Washington, on a southern trip, to Atlanta and Macon, Georgia, and other points, and nobody at home was giving any thought to the Filipinos, while they were knocking successively at the gates of the various Visayan capitals, and receiving the surrender of their Spanish defenders. It was getting toward the yuletide season. President McKinley was engaged, quite seasonably, in putting the finishing touches to the great work of his life, which was welding the North and the South together forever by wise and kindly manipulation of the countless opportunities to do so presented by the latest war. It was a season of general peace and rejoicing in a thrice-blessed land, and nobody in the United States was looking for trouble with the Filipinos. With our people it was a case of ignorance being bliss, so far as the Philippine Islands and their inhabitants were concerned. In his Autobiography of Seventy Years, Senator Hoar tells of an interview with President McKinley concerning his (the Senator’s) attitude toward the Treaty of Paris, early in December, 1898.8 “He greeted me with the delightful and affectionate cordiality which I always found in him. He took me by the hand, and said: ‘How are you feeling this winter, Mr. Senator?’ I was determined there should be no misunderstanding. I replied at once: ‘Pretty pugnacious, I confess, Mr. President.’ The tears came into his eyes and he said, grasping my hand again: ‘I shall always love you whatever you do.’ ”

      It behooves this nation, and all nations, to consider those tears. They explain all the subsequent history of the Philippines to date. Mr. McKinley had proved himself a gallant soldier in his youth, and he knew something of the horrors of war. He was also one of the most amiable gentlemen that ever lived. But it is no disrespect to his memory to say that while Mr. McKinley was a good man, Senator Hoar was his superior in moral fibre, and he knew it, and he knew the country knew it. He knew that Senator Hoar was going to fight the ratification of the treaty to the last ditch, speaking for the Rights of Man and such old “worn out formulæ,” and that his only defence before the bar of history would have to rest on “Trade Expansion,” alias the “Almighty Dollar.” Those tears were harbingers of the coming strife in the Philippines. They were shed for such lives as that strife might cost. They were an assumption of responsibility for such shedding of blood as the treaty might entail. The President returned to Washington from his southern trip on December 21st, and on December 23d (p. 55) cabled General Otis the following reply to his request of December 14th for instructions:

      Send necessary troops to Iloilo, to preserve the peace and protect life and property. It is most important that there should be no conflict with the insurgents. Be conciliatory but firm.

Senator Hoar had put Mr. McKinley on notice that he was going to present the ethics of the case in the debate on the treaty. Congress had gone home for the holidays, and after it re-assembled in January the treaty would come up. The vote was sure to be close, and a too vigorous manifestation of belief on the part of the Filipinos that this nation was not closing the war with Spain animated by “the same high rule of conduct which guided it in facing war” (Mr. McKinley’s instructions to the Peace Commissioners) might defeat the ratification of the treaty. Indeed, the final vote of February 6th, was so close that the Administration had but one vote to spare. The final vote was fifty-seven to twenty-seven—just one over the necessary two-thirds.

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