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the linguistic or conceptual turn, interpreted as a conception of the subject matter of philosophy.

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      If the original question, read literally, had too obvious an answer, either positive or negative, that would give us reason to suspect that someone who uttered it had some other meaning in mind, to which the overt compositional structure of the question might be a poor guide. But competent speakers of English may find themselves quite unsure how to answer the question, read literally, so we have no such reason for interpreting it non-literally.

      It is useful to look at some proposals and arguments from the vagueness debate, for two reasons. First, they show why the original question is hard, when taken at face value. Second, they show how semantic considerations play a central role in the attempt to answer it, even though it is not itself a semantic question.

      The most straightforward reason for answering the original question positively is that “Mars was always either dry or not dry” is a logical truth, a generalization over instances of the law of excluded middle (A ∕ ¬A, “It is either so or not so”) for various times. In my view, that reasoning is sound. However, many think otherwise. They deny the validity of excluded middle for vague terms such as “dry.”

      The simplest way of opposing the law of excluded middle is to deny outright when Mars is a borderline case that it is either dry or not dry, and therefore to answer the original question in the negative. For instance, someone may hold that Mars was either dry or not dry at time t only if one can know (perhaps later) whether it was dry at t, given optimal conditions for answering the question (and no difference in the history of Mars): since one cannot know, even under such conditions, whether it is dry when the case is borderline, it is not either dry or not dry. One difficulty for this negative response to the original question is that it seems to imply that in a borderline case Mars is neither dry nor not dry: in other words, both not dry and not not dry. That is a contradiction, for “not not dry” is the negation of “not dry.”

      On closer inspection, this strategy looks less promising. For a paradigm borderline case is the worst case for the law of excluded middle (for a term such as ‘dry’ for which threats to the law other than from vagueness are irrelevant), in the sense that both proponents and opponents of the law can agree that it holds in a paradigm borderline case only if it holds universally. In symbols, if Mars was a paradigm borderline case at time τ: (Dry(m,τ) ∕ ¬Dry(m,τ)) → ∀ t Dry(m, t) ∕ ¬Dry(m, t)) (“If Mars was either dry or not dry at time τ, then Mars was always either dry or not dry”). But on this approach the law does not hold always hold in these cases (¬∀t (Dry(m,t)∕ ¬Dry(m, t)), “Mars was not always either dry or not dry”), from which intuitionistic logic allows us to deduce that it does not hold in the paradigm borderline case (¬ (Dry(m,τ) ∕ ¬Dry(m,τ)), “Mars was not either dry or not dry at”), which is a denial of a particular instance of the law, and therefore intuitionistically inconsistent (it entails ¬Dry(m,τ) & ¬¬Dry(m,τ), “Mars was both not dry and not not dry at τ”). Thus the intuitionistic denial of the universal generalization of excluded middle for a vague predicate forces one to deny that it has such paradigm borderline cases. The latter denial is hard to reconcile with experience: after all, the notion of a borderline case is usually explained by examples.

      Other theorists of vagueness refuse to answer the original question either positively or negatively. They refuse to assert that Mars was always either dry or not dry; they also refuse to assert that it was not always either dry or not dry.

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