Risk Assessment - Marvin Rausand

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1 outlines why this is an important topic and briefly reviews the history of risk assessment. In Chapter 2, basic concepts are presented and discussed, followed by Chapter 3, where the main elements of risk assessment are described step by step. In Chapter 4, we elaborate on the study object in risk assessment. In Chapter 5, we move into the important topic of risk acceptance and review some of the approaches that are used to determine whether risk can be accepted or not. Chapter 6 deals with how risk can be measured, mainly in quantitative terms. The main focus is on measuring risk to people. Moving to Chapter 7, we discuss the wider process of risk management, and specifically the role of risk assessment in risk management. A risk assessment is always influenced by the study team's perception of the potential accidents and accident causation, and accident models are therefore presented and discussed in Chapter 8. Chapter 9 lists and describes the input data that are required for a risk assessment.

      Chapters 10–19 cover the most relevant analytical methods. In this book, we define risk as the answer to three questions: (i) What can go wrong? (ii) What is the likelihood of that happening?, and (iii) What are the consequences? Chapters 10–12 describe methods that can be used to answer these three questions, respectively. This is followed by a set of chapters dealing with specific problem areas that we often face in risk assessment. Dependency between failures and events is often a critical factor in risk analysis, and Chapter 13 deals with methods for analysis of this issue. Chapter 14 looks at barriers and barrier analysis, and in Chapter 15, methods for analysis of human errors and human reliability are described. In Chapter 16, risk analysis and management for operation of a system is discussed, followed by a brief review of methods for security assessment in Chapter 17. Risk analysis is used in various ways throughout the life cycle of systems, and Chapter 18 provides a description of use from the conceptual stage through to decommissioning and removal. The uncertainties related to the results from a risk analysis are often of concern, and this is treated in Chapter 19. Chapter 20 briefly reviews applications of risk assessment.

      The various analytical methods are, as far as possible, presented according to a common structure. The description of each method is designed to be self‐contained such that you should be able to carry out the analysis without having to read the entire book or search other sources. A consequence of this strategy is that the same information may be found in the description of several methods.

      Appendix A introduces key elements of probability theory. An introduction to probability theory is given together with some elements from system reliability and Bayesian methods. If you are not familiar with probability theory, you may find it useful to read this appendix in parallel with the chapters that use probability arguments. Appendix B lists acronyms.

      Online Information

      Additional material, solutions to many of the end‐of‐chapter exercises, and any errors found after the book goes to press, are posted on the book's associated website. The address to this website is provided under the heading “Extra” in Wiley's web presentation of the book.

      Trondheim, Norway

       M. Rausand & S. Haugen

      1 July 2019

      1 Rausand, M. (2011). Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley.

      The second author would like to thank Alma Mater Studiorium Università di Bologna for giving him the opportunity to spend eight months at the university while working on this book. A special thanks to Professor Valerio Cozzani for organizing the visit.

      We also acknowledge the editorial and production staff at John Wiley & Sons for their careful, effective, and professional work. In particular, we would like to mention our main contacts in the final stages of preparing the book, Kathleen Santoloci, Benjamin Elisha, and Viniprammia Premkumar.

      Several definitions used in this book are from the International electrotechnical vocabulary (IEV) http://www.electropedia.org . We appreciate the initiative of the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) to make this vocabulary freely available. References to the vocabulary are given in the text as IEV xxx‐yy‐zz, where xxx‐yy‐zz is the number of the definition in the IEV.

      Definitions 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3 as well as a modified version of Figure 4 from ISO 31000:2009, definition 3.6.1.3 from ISO Guide 73 and definition 3.5 from NS 5814 have all been reproduced under license from Standard Online AS June 2019. ©All right reserved. Standard Online makes no guarantees or warranties as to the correctness of the reproduction.

      Several references are given to publications by the UK Health and Safety Executive (HSE). This is public sector information published by the HSE and licensed under the Open Government License v.1.0.

      During the writing of the book, we have read many books, scientific articles, standards, technical reports, guidelines, and notes related to risk assessment. We have tried to process, combine, and reformulate the information obtained, and we have tried to give proper references. If we unconsciously copied sentences without giving proper reference, it has not been our intention, and we apologize if so has happened.

       www.wiley.com/go/riskassessment2e

      The website includes the following materials for students and other readers:

       A supplementary report (in PDF format) covering:– Listings of relevant scientific journals, conferences, societies, organizations issuing standards, software providers, and universities providing education programs in risk assessment.– Listing of important major accidents that have occurred after the book was published.– Suggestions to further reading (mainly with URLs) for each

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