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      Ken Fisher

      Beat the Crowd

      Fisher Investments Press

      Fisher Investments Press brings the research, analysis, and market intelligence of Fisher Investments' research team, headed by CEO and New York Times best-selling author Ken Fisher, to all investors. The Press covers a range of investing and market-related topics for a wide audience – from novices to enthusiasts to professionals.

      Cover image: City People Set © iStock.com/edge69; Multiple silhouettes of business people © 4x6/Digital Vision Vectors/Getty Images

      Cover design: Thomas Perez

      Copyright © 2015 by Fisher Investments. All rights reserved.

      Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

      Published simultaneously in Canada.

      No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750-8400, fax (978) 646-8600, or on the Web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at www.wiley.com/go/permissions.

      Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

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       Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data:

      ISBN 978-1-118-97305-9 (Hardcover)

      ISBN 978-1-118-97306-6 (ePDF)

      ISBN 978-1-118-97307-3 (ePub)

      Preface

      True confession: I didn’t want to write a preface for this book. It’s too darned long already, and I wanted to spare you having to flip one more page. But alas, the powers that be require one – who knew!

      Maybe that’s fitting, because this is a book I didn’t think I’d write. I was happy with 10 books. Ten is a round number, and plenty. I didn’t think the world needed another Ken Fisher book. But ideas happen! An idea struck during a conversation with my former Wiley editor, Laura Gachko (still with Wiley, no longer saddled with my silly nonsense) and my co-author, Elisabeth Dellinger – one thing led to another, and next I knew, I was at it again. Eleven is a fun number, too.

      The concept of contrarianism has run through my books since Super Stocks, way back in 1984, but I’ve never overtly addressed it. To me, contrarianism has always been about independent thinking, and my books have always demonstrated this (at least, I like to think so). But that fateful December day in 2013, it occurred to us that I’d never come out and explained just what the heck contrarianism is, isn’t and how to practice it. I realized it was time, since contrarianism is misunderstood and misapplied by many – and unknowingly practiced by some, who might like to know it.

      Most assume being contrarian means doing the opposite of what “everyone” does – if “everyone” is mostly wrong most of the time, betting the opposite must bring success! Sometimes, that’s true. But often not. Opposite-doers have a herd-like mentality, too, and the market loves fooling them as much as it loves fooling the crowd they’re trying to game. Real life isn’t “herd versus contrarians.” It’s the mainstream herd, the opposite-doing herd, and the independent thinkers – real contrarians. They see what both herds think, then weigh all extant factors – pluses and minuses – and reach their own conclusions.

      This book is a how-to guide for anyone tired of rules of thumb, media hype and industry mythology and wants to think independently. It’s a brain-training guide. Not foolproof! But foolproof doesn’t exist. This book simply teaches the thought process that helped me be right more often than wrong for over four decades of money management. You can be right more often than wrong, too!

      This book was a team effort. As said above, Laura helped generate the idea and provided early edits before passing the reins to Tula Batanchiev, who edited the lion’s share along with Judy Howarth and the rest of their team at John Wiley & Sons. Vincent Nordhaus led production at Wiley. Wiley’s team was diligent and patient as always, and I remain grateful to my excellent agent, Jeff Herman, for leading me to them. Jarred Kriz, Michael Olsen, Lauren Schekman, Eric Harger and Nathaniel Beeman – who have worked with me for years – also provided ideas. Thomas Perez designed another cool cover, capturing our theme perfectly. Jessica Wolfe, Chanddeep Madaan, Sam Olson, Michael Leong, Tim Schluter, Brad Pyles and Talia Hosenpud helped with research, while Jarred, Todd Bliman, Jill Hitchcock, Justin Arbuckle and Molly Lienesch weighed in on early drafts and helped steer us toward a sane path. Todd pulled triple duty, editing the entire book for content and shouldering most of Elisabeth’s workload (and providing her unquantifiable moral support) while she shelved much of her day job of writing for my firm to devote her time to this project. Christopher Wong and Emily Dunbar – up-and-coming writers at my firm – helped with copy-edits. Last but not least, Fab Ornani, David Eckerly, Christopher Boaz and Theodore Gilliland led our PR and web marketing. To all of them and anyone I failed to mention here – and to my wife, Sherrilyn, and broad family – I give my deepest thanks.

      And thanks to you, for reading!

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