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Chapter One The Bad and the Ugly

       Chinese Perceptions of the 2016 US Presidential Election

      Zhang Guoxi

This chapter examines Chinese perceptions of the 2016 US presidential election, an event of global significance that has generated unusual interest and concern among both China’s elites and its general public. The contest for the White House in 2016 was characterized by one Chinese media outlet as the reality version of Game of Thrones.¹ The two major contestants, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, were the most searched and discussed topics for many Chinese citizens.² For some of China’s pundits, the election became an industry of its own, providing them with numerous opportunities for media and TV appearances as well as for research and publication.³ The Chinese government, bound by its non-interference policy, admittedly followed the US election “with great interest.”⁴ To the extent that every presidential election in the United States is watched with great care in China, the nearly unprecedented attention that has been paid to this year’s election not only affirms the unique relevance of the United States to China, but also reveals the uniqueness of the 2016 presidential election as far as the Chinese are concerned.

      What is it about the US presidential election that interests and concerns the Chinese? In particular, what were the unique characteristics of the 2016 presidential election that contributed to the outpouring of attention from the Chinese? How did the Chinese view the election; what were their perceptions of the major candidates and issues; and what were their reactions to the election’s outcome? To what extent did the 2016 presidential election change Chinese perceptions of the United States in general? Last but certainly not least, what are the implications of the election for China and China-US relations going forward? The remainder of this chapter will focus on these framing questions and discuss the 2016 presidential election through Chinese eyes.

       AMERICA’S ELECTION: WHY DOES CHINA CARE?

There are compelling reasons China should be highly concerned about the US presidential elections, considering the enormous stakes that China has in its dealings with the United States as well as China’s hope of maintaining a stable and cooperative bilateral relationship. To state the obvious, the economic interdependence between China and the United States, the world’s two biggest economies, has grown to the extent that neither side could take strong actions against the other without seriously undermining its own interests. The extent of this economic interdependence has been attested to by the strong warnings about and opposition to the prospect of a China-US trade war under the incoming Trump administration by pundits from both countries.⁵ While bilateral trade and investment still serve as the key foundation of China-US cooperation, the relationship has become increasingly grounded in new areas that include global governance and closer general collaboration between the two nations. As China’s economic importance and global influence continue to grow, the future of international peace and development will largely depend on how well China and the United States can manage their differences and avoid conflicts while pursuing and expanding their shared interests.

Despite its rising economic, political, and military power, China is constantly reminded of both the benefits and constraints of living in a world order invented and dominated by a nation whose values and ideologies are opposed to its own. Given the United States’ superpower status, the Chinese government deeply appreciates the strategic significance of maintaining a stable and positive relationship with the United States for the sake of its own domestic peace and development.⁶ Because US presidential elections and the ensuing transfer of power inevitably give rise to changes—large and small—in the United States’ policy toward China, China is naturally sensitive to the dynamics of the electoral process as well as the election outcome.⁷

From the Chinese perspective, however, the 2016 presidential election was drastically different from past US elections in at least two respects. First, the timing of the election was unique, both in terms of America’s domestic politics and China-US relations. The 2016 presidential election took place against the backdrop of what Francis Fukuyama has famously termed the “American political decay,” a notion that since its introduction has become popular among China’s experts on the United States.⁸

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