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housing markets, especially those in California, experienced falling prices — dropping 20 percent or more in most areas by the mid-1990s. The Japanese real estate market crash also began around the time of the California market fall. Property prices in Japan collapsed more than 60 percent.

Period Size of Fall
1929–1932 89% (ouch!)
2007–2009 55%
1937–1942 52%
1906–1907 49%
1890–1896 47%
1919–1921 47%
1901–1903 46%
1973–1974 45%
1916–1917 40%
2000–2002 39%
2020 36%

      After reading this section, you may want to keep all your money in the bank — after all, you know you won’t lose your money, and you won’t have to be a nonstop worrier. Since the FDIC came into existence in 1933, no one has lost 20, 40, 60, or 80 percent of his bank-held savings vehicle within a few years (major losses prior to then did happen, though). But just letting your money sit around would be a mistake.

      

If you pass up the stock and real estate markets simply because of the potential market-value risk, you miss out on a historic, time-tested method of building substantial wealth. Instead of seeing declines and market corrections as horrible things, view them as potential opportunities or “sales.” Try not to give in to the human emotions that often scare people away from buying something that others seem to be shunning.

      Diversify for a smoother ride

      If you worry about the health of the U.S. economy, the government, and the dollar, you can reduce your investment risk by investing overseas. Most large U.S. companies do business overseas, so when you invest in larger U.S. company stocks, you get some international investment exposure. You can also invest in international company stocks, ideally via mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (see Chapter 8).

      Of course, investing overseas can’t totally protect you in the event of a global economic catastrophe. If you worry about the risk of such a calamity, you should probably also worry about a huge meteor crashing into Earth. Maybe there’s a way to colonize outer space… .

      

Diversifying your investments can involve more than just your stock portfolio. You can also hold some real estate investments to diversify your investment portfolio. Many real estate markets actually appreciated in the early 2000s while the U.S. stock market was in the doghouse. Conversely, when U.S. real estate entered a multi-year slump in the mid-2000s, stocks performed well during that period. In the late 2000s, stock prices fell sharply while real estate prices in most areas declined, but then stocks came roaring back.

      Consider your time horizon

      Although the stock market is more volatile than the bond market in the short term, stock market investors have earned far better long-term returns than bond investors have. (See the “Stock returns” section later in this chapter for details.) Why? Because stock investors bear risks that bond investors don’t bear, and they can reasonably expect to be compensated for those risks. Remember, however, that bonds generally outperform a boring old bank account.

      © John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

      FIGURE 2-1: What are the odds of making or losing money in the U.S. markets? In a single year, you win far more often (and bigger) with stocks than with bonds.

History has shown that the risk of a stock or bond market fall becomes less of a concern the longer that you plan to invest. Figure 2-2 shows that as the holding period for owning stocks increases from 1 year to 3 years to 5 years to 10 years and then to 20 years, there’s a greater likelihood of seeing stocks increase in value. In fact, over any 20-year time span, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index of larger company stocks, has never lost money, even after you subtract the effects of inflation.

      Most stock market investors I know are concerned about the risk of losing money. Figure 2-2 clearly shows that the key to minimizing the probability that you’ll lose money in stocks is to hold them for the longer term. Don’t invest in stocks unless you plan to hold them for at least five years — and preferably a decade or longer. Check out Part 2 for more on using stocks as a long-term investment.

Bar chart depicting the US stocks average annual returns for different holding 
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