IRAQ - Patrick Cockburn

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      STABLE GOVERNMENT

      Fears of civil war are increasing as Iraqi politicians wrangle over the formation of a government nearly three months after the election. Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, detested by Sunni politicians because of his links to Shia militias, refuses to stand aside so that a unity government can be formed.

      The Promise: "Having liberated Iraq as promised, we will help that country to found a just and representative government, as promised. Our goal is a swift transition to Iraqi control of their own affairs. People of Iraq will be secure, and the people of Iraq will run their own country." George Bush, 1 July 2003 "The Prime Minister and I have made our choice: Iraq will be free; Iraq will be independent; Iraq will be a peaceful nation; and we will not waver in the face of fear and intimidation." Joint Bush and Blair statement, 16 April 2004

      The Reality: "Almost three years after the invasion, it is still not certain whether, or in what sense, Iraq is a nation. And after two elections and a referendum on the constitution, Iraq barely has a government." Conservative US columnist George Will, March 2006.

      The Statistic: 86 days since the Iraqi people voted on 15 December 2005, without a government being formed.

      ARMY AND POLICE REFORM

      The new Iraqi army and police force is one of the most controversial and secretive aspects of the occupation. Apart from doubts about the loyalty and effectiveness of troops trained by the coalition, there are fears that police and paramilitaries are functioning as death squads.

      The Promise: "As the Iraqi security forces stand up, the confidence of the Iraqi people is growing - and Iraqis are providing the vital intelligence needed to track down the terrorists." Bush at US naval academy, 30 November 2005

      The Reality: "Many cases of torture and ill-treatment of detainees held in facilities controlled by the Iraqi authorities have been reported since the handover of power in June 2004. Among other methods, victims have been subjected to electric shocks or have been beaten with plastic cable. The picture that is emerging is one in which the Iraqi authorities are systematically violating the rights of detainees in breach of guarantees contained both in Iraqi legislation and in international law and standards." Amnesty International, March 2006

      The Statistic: 60 battalions in the reconstituted Iraqi army are Shia, outnumbering the 45 Sunni and three Kurdish battalions.

      THE ECONOMY

      It seemed a reasonable assumption that Iraq's oil industry, crippled by sanctions, could swiftly be revived after the invasion, but the insurgency has wrecked those hopes. Incompetence in the Coalition Provisional Authority and lack of security have also ruined reconstruction, with basic services almost all in a worse state than before the war, despite billions of dollars in investment.

      The Promise: "We reaffirm our commitment to protect Iraq's natural resources, as the patrimony of the people of Iraq, which should be used only for their benefit." Blair and Bush, 8 April 2003 "Iraq, unlike Afghanistan, is a rather wealthy country. Iraq has tremendous resources that belong to the Iraqi people. And so there are a variety of means that Iraq has to be able to shoulder much of the burden for their own reconstruction." White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, 18 February 2003

      The Reality: "The US never intended to completely rebuild Iraq. This was just supposed to be a jump-start." Brigadier General William McCoy, Army Corps of Engineers commander, January 2006

      The Statistic: $9 billion of US taxpayers' money unaccounted for in Iraq.

      DAILY LIFE

      The coalition authorities admit that much of the insurgency is fuelled by a lack of economic opportunity. While the occupation has brought more money to some, mainly in Baghdad, life has been made more difficult for most by shortages of water and power, sky-high prices - and the ever-present danger of violent death.

      The Promise: "Our progress has been uneven but progress is being made. We are improving roads and schools and health clinics and working to improve basic services like sanitation, electricity and water. And together with our allies, we will help the new Iraqi government deliver a better life for its citizens." George Bush, 27 June 2005

      The Reality: "The Iraqi people are suffering from a desperate lack of jobs, housing, health care and electricity… If you compare this to the situation in the 1980s, you will see a major deterioration of the situation." Barham Saleh (planning minister) in 'Living conditions in Iraq 2004', a survey by Iraqi authorities and the UN. "Although a large percentage in Iraq is connected to water, electricity and sewage networks, the supply is too unstable to make a difference to their lives." Staffan de Mistura, UNDP representative, May 2005

      The Statistic:

      5.2 ─ average number of daily hours of electricity in Baghdad homes

      THE DEATH TOLL

      37,589 ─ maximum number of civilian deaths since the Iraq invasion in 2003, according to Iraq Body Count, which bases its estimates on media reports. The minimum figure it gives for the same period is 33,489

      100,000 ─ the estimate of civilian deaths since the invasion, published in 'The Lancet' in the autumn of 2004, based on statistical analysis

      2,306 ─ US military deaths since the invasion

      16,653 ─ US military personnel wounded in action since the invasion

      103 ─ British military deaths since the invasion. Figures for British wounded are not available

      103 ─ other coalition military deaths since the invasion

      1,110 ─ highest monthly total of bodies brought into Baghdad mortuary during the past 12 months. The lowest figure was 780

      Patrick Cockburn and Raymond Whitaker

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      Saturday, 20 January 2007

      All foreigners are targets in Iraq, Americans especially. Even those who come to the country to do good share the fate of those who come to kill.

      Moments after Andrea Parhamovich, a 28-year-old from Ohio, left the offices of a Sunni Arab political party in Baghdad this week, her car was caught in withering crossfire and burst into flames, killing her and her two bodyguards. Unlike the 20,000 troops who have started arriving in the country as part of President George Bush's "surge", she was not a soldier who had come to Iraq to fight: her mission was to teach the people how to vote.

      The ambush was a deadly reminder of the danger all foreigners face. It should, but probably will not, give pause to the plan to embed more US soldiers with Iraqi military units in Baghdad. Polls show about four out of five Iraqis in the capital approve of armed attacks on US-led forces.

      It may have been an attempted kidnapping. Some of the attackers first attempted to break into her car. It was only when they failed to break the locks that they used grenades and machine guns. Another guard was killed and two more wounded in a second car.

      Ms Parhamovich was working for the National Democratic Institute giving lessons to Iraqi political parties. She had gone to meet Sunni politicians of the Iraqi Islamic Party at its headquarters in the Yarmouk district. Most probably the insurgents were tipped off by a guard at the headquarters. Ms Parhamovich had followed her boyfriend, Michael Hastings, a Newsweek journalist, to Baghdad 15 months ago. In the US she raised funds for the liberal radio network Air America. In Baghdad, she first worked for the International Republican Institute and joined the National Democratic Institute at the end of 2006.

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