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      Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics

      ‘Much more than an introduction, John Morecroft's Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics uses interactive “mini-simulators and microworlds” to create an engaging and effective learning environment in which readers, whatever their background, can develop their intuition about complex dynamic systems. The examples, from manufacturing operations to competitive strategy, corporate growth and environmental sustainability, provide a rich test-bed for the development of the systems thinking and modelling skills needed to design effective policies for the strategic challenges faced by senior managers throughout the economy today.'

John Sterman, Jay W. Forrester Professor of Management, MIT Sloan School of Management

      ‘We are living in a world revolutionised by six decades of exponential growth in computing speed, where powerful computers have become consumer electronics and simulation has become virtual reality. Business modelling has come of age. This book, with its vivid examples and simulators, is helping to bring modelling, system dynamics and simulation into the mainstream of management education where they now belong.'

John A. Quelch, Professor of Marketing, Harvard Business School, Former Dean of London Business School

      ‘John Morecroft's book is an ideal text for students interested in system modelling and its application to a range of real-world problems. The book covers all that is necessary to develop expertise in system dynamics modelling and through the range of applications makes a persuasive case for the power and scope of SD modelling. As such, it will appeal to practitioners as well as students. At Warwick we have a range of undergraduate, masters and MBA courses in simulation, business modelling and strategic development/planning and the text would provide valuable support to those courses.'

Robert Dyson, Emeritus Professor, Operational Research and Management Sciences Group, Warwick Business School

      ‘Illustrated by examples from everyday life, business and policy, John Morecroft expertly demonstrates how systems thinking aided by system dynamics can improve our understanding of the world around us. Indeed, such thinking provides the basis for improving our world, from making everyday decisions to leading key strategic and policy initiatives. Anyone who is interested in understanding the world and making better choices should read this book.'

Stewart Robinson, Associate Dean Research, President of the Operational Research Society, Professor of Management Science, School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University

      ‘This text fills the gap between texts focusing on the purely descriptive systems approach and the more technical system dynamics ones. I consider it particularly well suited to the more mature student (MBA, EMBA, Executive courses) due to the focus on conceptualisation and the understanding of complex dynamics.'

Ann van Ackere, Professor of Decision Sciences, HEC Lausanne, Université de Lausanne

      ‘In today's complex business world company leaders are repeatedly challenged to rethink dominant strategic logics, and if necessary to adapt their firms to cope with turbulence and change. Strategic modelling based on system dynamics is a powerful tool that helps to better understand the feedback structures underlying the dynamics of change. The author demonstrates the appeal and power of business modelling to make sense of strategic initiatives and to anticipate their impacts through simulation. The book offers various simulators that allow readers to conduct their own policy experiments.'

Dr Erich Zahn, Professor for Strategic Management, University of StuttgartStrategic Modelling and Business DynamicsA Feedback Systems ApproachSecond EditionJohn D.W. Morecroft

      This edition first published 2015

      © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

      First edition published 2007

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      Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. It is sold on the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional services and neither the publisher nor the author shall be liable for damages arising herefrom. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

      Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available.

      Morecroft, John D.W. (John Douglas William)

      Strategic modelling and business dynamics: a feedback systems approach / John D.W. Morecroft. – Second edition.

      pages cm

      Includes bibliographical references and index.

      ISBN 978-1-118-84468-7 (paper) 1. Decision making–Simulation methods. 2. Business–Simulation methods. 3. Social systems–Simulation methods. 4. System analysis. 5. Computer simulation. I. Title.

      HD30.23.M663 2015

      001.4′34–dc23

      201501

      A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

      ISBN 978-1-118-84468-7 (pbk)

      ISBN 978-1-118-99481-8 (ebk) ISBN 978-1-118-84470-0 (ebk)

      Cover image: © Getty Images/Stockbyte

      Cover design: Wiley

To Jay Forrester, academic pioneer

      About the Author

      John Morecroft is Senior Fellow in Management Science and Operations at London Business School where he has taught system dynamics, problem structuring and strategy in MBA, PhD and Executive Education programmes. He served as Associate Dean of the School's Executive MBA and co-designed EMBA-Global, a dual degree programme with New York's Columbia Business School. He is a leading expert in system dynamics and strategic modelling. His publications include numerous journal articles and three co-edited books. He is a recipient of the Jay Wright Forrester Award of the System Dynamics Society for his work on bounded rationality, information feedback and behavioural decision making in models of the firm. He is a Past President of the Society and one of its Founding Members. His research interests include the dynamics of firm performance and the use of models and simulation in strategy development. He has led applied research projects for international organisations including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, BBC World Service,

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