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       Dr. Fabian Brunner

       Banking in Crisis

      How strategic trends will change the banking business of the future

      1st edition

      Copyright: © 2020 Dr. Fabian Brunner

      Editing: Erik Kinting – www.buchlektorat.net

      Translation: Geoff Maddocks

      Cover design and layout: Erik Kinting

      Published and printed by:

      tredition GmbH

      Halenreie 40-44

      22359 Hamburg

      Germany

      978-3-347-10201-9 (Paperback)

      978-3-347-10202-6 (Hardcover)

      978-3-347-10203-3 (e-Book)

      This work, including any part thereof, is protected by copyright. This work and any part thereof shall not be used without the permission of the publisher and the author. This applies without limitation to electronic or other copying, translation, distribution and making available to the public.

      Bibliographical information of Deutsche Nationalbibliothek (German National Library):

      Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie (German National Bibliography); detailed bibliographical information is available on the Internet at

      http://dnb.d-nb.de.

       Contents

       Quo vadis banking?

      Background

      Approach

       The valuation of banks – a special case

      The valuation of a bank is not a simple corporate valuation

      Consequences for valuation

      Valuation approaches and their suitability

      The challenge of forecasting

      Capitalized earnings approach

      Equity and return

      The cost of equity

      Forecasting future net cash flows

      Market approaches

      Price-to-earnings ratio

      Price-to-book ratio

      The valuation of banking business areas

      Consumer banking

      Investment banking

      Summary and outlook

       Banking business models

      Value creation and business model

      The banking value creation model

      Trends in banking

      Outsourcing of the banking value chain

      The role of FinTechs in banking taking the example of the neo-banks

      Acquisition of growth and know-how

      The goal of achieving a competitive advantage

      Attractiveness of sector

      Excursion:

      The relative competitive position

      Excursion:

      The evaluation of (bank) strategies

      Evaluation criteria

      Evaluation approaches

      Summary and outlook

       Strategy and competition

      Market attractiveness taking the German banking market as an example

      The transformation of banking business

      German banks in competition

      The opportunity and risk profile

      The competitive situation – case studies

      Commerzbank

      The bank as a whole

      Business areas

      Deutsche Bank

      The bank as a whole

      Business areas (divisions)

      Summary and outlook

       Value creation analysis – case studies

      Survey-based value creation analysis

      Background and methodology

      Empirical results

      Part I.

      Intensity of competition – Threat to competitive position

      Part II.

      The relationship between customers and banks – competitive advantage

      Part III.

      Future prospects – with reference to the standard banking business case, branch business

      Market-based value creation analysis

      Market development

      Commerzbank

      Deutsche Bank

      Earnings situation

      Summary and outlook

       Conclusion

       Appendix: Questionnaire

       End notes

       Quo vadis banking?

       Background

      Banks now face a large number of previously unknown challenges. Apart from the fact that everyday business is becoming increasingly globalized and technologized, banking in the future will be characterized by increasingly intense regulatory provisions and a growing number of new entrants, driven by digitalization and specializing in individual aspects of the banking value stream, especially the BigTechs. All these developments will significantly change the competitive situation, value creation structures and existing business models of the banking industry.

      To date, the strategic trends faced by the classical banking value creation process, which are mentioned in this book, have chiefly been innovations, which have largely been followed by banks throughout the world. It therefore seemed that the traditional value creation model of the banks had survived unchanged over the course of time. As long as the author can remember, the basic configuration of core banking industry operations, the smooth processing of payment transactions and financing operations, has remained unchanged. These core operations lay the foundations for the key functions of banking within any economy. Payment and financing transactions are simply indispensable for the proper functioning of an economy. Of course, the world has not stood still – the establishment of online banking is one example – but the basic logic of the banking industry has scarcely changed at all over the past decades.

      Nevertheless, there are now signs that the perfect storm is now brewing, at least for the European banking industry. On the one hand, banks face an economic stress scenario as a result of COVID-19 in conjunction with the currently low levels of profitability of Europe’s banks. Despite the progress achieved since the financial crisis, the global financial system is vulnerable to a poor economic situation with a significant duration. Over the past few years, the share of relatively high-risk borrowers in banks’ loan portfolios has grown steadily. Impairment losses and bad debts will therefore grow even faster and more strongly in the impending global recession than would have been the case with a balanced

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