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      Games FOXES Play

      Planning for Extraordinary Times

      Was a massive terrorist strike on Western soil imaginable before 9/11? Yes, if you read the letter to the US president contained in The Mind of a Fox, the No.1 bestseller published in June 2001. The book has since transformed scenario planning from an esoteric discipline into a practical model widely used in the business world. Now the authors, Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter, have extended their model to allow companies to have an intense strategic conversation based on the idea that business is a game which you have to understand before examining different strategies to play it.

      In Games Foxes Play – Planning for Extraordinary Times, the authors challenge the American orthodoxy that only leaders with a fixed, central vision (hedgehogs) can achieve greatness. They argue that leaders with a balanced set of beliefs and the capability of adapting to change (foxes) are more likely to win the extraordinary times we live in.

      About the authors

      Chantell Ilbury is an independent strategist and facilitator whose work with corporate teams has taken her to the UK, the US, Europe, Australasia, the Middle East and Africa. She lectures on strategy at a number of top business schools and is an accomplished speaker on effective strategy in times of uncertainty. Chantell holds a BSc in Chemistry, a Higher Diploma in Education, an Executive MBA from the University of Cape Town, and has studied Strategic Negotiation at Harvard Business School in Boston.

      Chantell is married to Daryl and they have two children.

      Clem Sunter was born in Suffolk, England, and educated at Winchester College. He went to Oxford University where he read Politics, Philosophy and Economics. He has been with Anglo American Corporation since 1966, where he is now Chairman of the Anglo American Chairman’s Fund.

      Clem married Margaret Rowland in 1969 and they have three children. He received an honorary doctorate from the University of Cape Town in 2004 for the work he has done in the field of scenario planning. His hobbies include music and golf.

      Further details on the authors and their work:

       www.mindofafox.com

      Also by Chantell Ilbury and Clem Sunter

      The Mind of a Fox: Scenario Planning in Action, 2001, Human & Rousseau and Tafelberg

      Socrates and the Fox: A Strategic Dialogue, 2007, Human & Rousseau and Tafelberg

      Contents

      I Can’t . . . or Can I?

      Anyone for a game?

      Straight talk about strategy

      The power of the spoken word

      Rimless wagon wheels versus circles

      Foxes versus hedgehogs

      Dots in space versus games

      The Conversation Model

      The scope of the game

      Players

      Rules of the Game

      Key Uncertainties

      Scenarios

      SWOT

      Options

      Decisions

      Measurable Outcomes

      The Meaning of Winning

      Full House

      This book is dedicated to

      Our families who are our foundation;

      Our friends who stand by us in good

      and bad times;

      Our colleagues who assisted us in producing

      the book in such a professional manner;

      Zoleka Hlomuka, the foxiest PA in 44 Main;

      and

      The fox within you – whoever you are,

      wherever you are, and whatever you do.

      I Can’t . . . or Can I?

      Four things I’d been better without

      Love, curiosity, freckles and doubt.

      DOROTHY PARKER

      How often do you change your mind? What causes you to change it? Perhaps a newspaper article, except we tend to read newspapers which accord with our views. Maybe an office memorandum, except they are usually as dull as ditch-water and are ignored unless they contain an implied threat. Actually, it is not easy to change somebody’s mind with the written word. Occasionally, a book comes along, like Animal Farm by George Orwell, that can do the job. But think about conversation. That can change your mind, especially if it is with people you trust and respect. Their gestures, intonations and emotions add strength to the content of what they are saying. You respond. There is an interplay in which you are an active participant. As a consequence, your opinions of people and the future can change. Your views on politics and the economy might also be amended, though less frequently and perhaps to a lesser degree. On the other hand, your moral and religious beliefs may never be swayed either by the written or spoken word.

      This book is about conversation. Indeed, we introduce a model later on which serves as an agenda for a strategic conversation. Any organisation can use it to change its mindset. ‘Change management’ is what some people call it, but to get people to manage differently, you have to change their minds first. Attitudinal shift precedes behavioural change. You will also be introduced to some people who never change their mind. They have an idea and that’s it. We call them ‘hedgehogs’. The majority of Americans love leaders like that – look at the result of the presidential election in 2004. Time named the successful candidate as its person of the year. In fact, the ‘hedgehog model’ underpins much of the management theory taught at Ivy League business schools in the US. There’s even a smash hit in business literature suggesting that only hedgehogs convert from good to great leaders.

      But don’t you smell a rat here? On the one hand, we are deluged with books on change, change, change, and on the other hand, we are told that real champions don’t change their minds. So our favourite animal is not a hedgehog, not a rat, but a fox. The rest of the book is about them. ‘Foxes’ do change their minds – when they realise they are wrong about something or something better exists out there. Against devout hedgehogs like Thatcher, Reagan and George W. Bush stand foxes like Nelson Mandela and F. W. de Klerk. If they hadn’t changed their minds, South Africa would never have experienced the miracle that it did. They compromised. By compromising, they won the game.

      Thirdly, this book is about games, the games foxes play. Playing games is second nature to all of us. We learn from early childhood how to play games. In fact, life is a game. You’re born, you play the game once, then you die. Unless you believe in reincarnation. In which case, depending on how you performed, you come back as an eagle, a rat . . . or a lawyer!

      There’s been a methodology around for years, at the heart of which lies game playing. It’s called scenario planning. Each scenario is a possible outcome to the game. You weigh up the consequences, then you make a move. The military uses this technique. A few businesses do too. But the best example is a country that used scenario planning to improve the quality of its conversation about the future – South Africa. Back to those foxes! They were the transition generation. You can say that South Africans are natural foxes. So are scenario planners. They all have the ability to change their minds; and change other people’s minds as well. Where else than in South Africa would you find ex-Marxists and trade unionists becoming chairmen of some of the foremost companies in the land?

      I can’t . . . or can I? Thank heavens, Dorothy Parker admitted to curiosity and doubt. She was a fox, even though she wanted to be a freckle-less hedgehog.

      Anyone

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