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Figure 1.1. (a) The size of key economies in 2011. (b) Change in USD GDP. Source: IMF.

      By the end of 2011, the aggregate size of the BRIC economies stood at around $15 trillion, not far off the size of the US economy. Remarkably, in just one year (2011) the rise in the dollar value of their GDP was $2.3 trillion, equivalent to creating between seven and eight new Greek economies a year, or to adding another Italy to the global economy in a year. In the West, people think about the BRIC countries as economic powers of the future. The point is that this future is already upon us. They are the powers of the present.

      The message of this book is that even though their growth rates may be slowing down, Western policymakers must take on board the lessons of the adaptive capitalism adopted in a wide range of economies, from China to Nigeria, and must al­low these Growth Markets their proper status in international institutions, for effective governance of the global economy.

      The BRIC countries differ greatly from the other Growth Markets, but the common theme is that they have been pragmatic in adapting capitalism to their own situation and needs. This book describes some of the key similarities and differences between them. They need to become more Western in some of their own policies and practices, as described below. However, the West, post crisis, needs to adapt too.

      I have spent much of the past eighteen months trying to explain to business people and investors around the world that, hard as it might be for them to believe, the European financial crisis is not the biggest issue facing the world economy. The biggest single issue is the continuing growth of the BRIC countries, and some other rapidly growing economies. As I will discuss in a geopolitical and policy context, they will soon outweigh the United States in terms of GDP, which, among other things, will mean that as a group their influence on the world is set to rise dramatically.

      Labelling economies

      In the past few years the label BRIC has, for political rather than economic reasons, become BRICS with the inclusion of South Africa. Economically this is a bit odd, as South Africa, with a total GDP of around $400 billion, is not much bigger than Greece. Its size is dwarfed by the four original BRIC countries, and, indeed, by the four other emerging economies4 that I refer to here as Growth Markets (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey). They are each two or three times the size of South Africa. While the BRICs and the Growth Markets are the main subject here, as I will show in Chapter 3, Africa as a whole is already showing promising signs of growth and its potential is certainly quite BRIC-like. What is more, the growth of trade and investment between Africa and the BRIC countries is an important aspect of the transition into a mainly non-Western world economy – a story that is currently underappreciated. Nigeria is the continent’s leading contender for growth economy status. Still, if South Africa can help to both represent Africa as a continent and use that platform to positively encourage the growth of infrastructure and trade between African countries, then its membership of the club is more justifiable.

      Still driving global growth

      Table 1.2 is probably the most important table in the book because it shows that, although BRIC growth is going to be slower this decade than last, global GDP growth this decade could accelerate compared with the past three decades, because the BRIC countries and other rapidly growing emerging world economies now have so much more weight in the global economy.

Table 1.2. Global growth: last three decades and next decade.