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from the small number of convention center consultants, the overall “pitch” was that center development was a “can’t miss” public investment.

      The logic of convention industry growth had one additional foundational argument during the 1990s. Industry spokespeople, as well as consultants, regularly termed it “recession-proof.” Much of the case for the “recession-proof” conclusion rested on the apparent performance of the industry in 1990, during the Gulf War recession. The annual percent change figures for the Tradeshow “200” in 1991 actually showed some modest growth—1.3 percent in exhibit space use—from 1990 to 1991. Only the attendance measure failed to show positive growth, at 0 percent. What did not appear to have occurred was any real downturn. And the “200” measures quickly turned up from 1991 to 1992. The annual “200” directory summary for 1992 was headed “The Big Shows Bounce Back in 1992,” with the report that the “200” had a 1.9 percent increase in exhibit space, and 3.7 percent in attendance.

      It was possible for Doug Ducate, head of the Center for Exhibition Industry Research, to describe the period before 2000 as “boom times for 15 straight years in the tradeshow industry, with annual growth and fistfuls of profits.” The assumption of consistent growth then ran into the realities of a changed economy with the collapse of the tech bubble, and the dramatic shift in travel behavior after 9-11.⁴⁴

      Before 2001, industry spokespeople and center consultants spoke of a long-term history of demand growth. Tradeshow Week’s “200” directory for 2000 headlined “Solid Growth Reported in All Indexes,” with a reported 2.8 percent increase in average attendance from 1999. The headline the following year, in the directory published in April 2002 covering the previous year, was “Shows Report Steepest Declines in Directory’s History.” Exhibit space use was reported to have fallen 1.3 percent from 2000, with average attendance down 4.5 percent. The 2002 edition of the “200” directory offered no better news. The summary analysis read, “U.S. Exhibit Space Drops” and reported a 6.0 percent fall in exhibit space use and a decline of 4.4 percent in attendance.⁴⁵

      Tradeshow Week presented 2003 as the year the “200” and the industry managed a dramatic turnaround. Although the exhibit space use still showed a decline from the previous year in percentage terms—0.7 percent—it was far smaller than previous drops. And attendance actually showed a year-over-year gain of 3.4 percent, putting it back into the growth category. PWC joined in soon thereafter with its 2004 “Convention Center Report,” signaling “significant improvement in the performance of convention centers.” The report went on to describe an increase in convention and tradeshow occupancy rates at large centers (over 500,000 square feet), and a “2003 to 2004 increase in attendance to conventions and trade shows of 14 percent!”⁴⁶

      As the convention industry appeared to be rebounding in 2003 and 2004, consultant reports began to return to the growth argument, eventually arguing that the industry had returned to a pre-2000 level of demand, and would continue to grow in future years. A “white paper” on supply and demand, produced by the CSL International firm for the International Association of Convention and Visitors Bureaus in the fall of 2004, included a section headed “Demand Is Increasing” that argued, “there are encouraging signs for the industry.” The firm’s survey of 127 meeting planners found between 63 and 75 percent “foresee exhibit space growth over the next two to five years,” and “Similar data is registered for growth in attendance.” The demand analysis concluded, “The concept of the gathering of people works, and in a capitalist society, the private sector will exploit this fact to continually find profitable ways to utilize a growing inventory of facility space.”⁴⁷

      Yet had convention demand actually recovered by 2006? Was the industry back to a pattern of consistent annual growth in exhibit space use and attendance? The PWC assessment, using data from its annual report on center performance, was largely cast in terms of occupancy and exhibit space use rather than attendance. The CSL “white paper” for the convention bureau association was built on survey data regarding expectations. And CSL’s consultant reports for a host of cities displayed index numbers derived from annual percent change calculations, rather than actual numbers.

      The “official story” of convention industry demand, repeated by consultants, convention and visitors bureaus, industry publications, and the Center for Exhibition Industry Research, was that some 15 years of consistent growth had been interrupted—briefly and not seriously—by the Gulf War recession in 1991, followed by steady and consistent growth through the 1990s. The recession and 9-11 had seriously affected convention demand, with drops in exhibit space use and attendance. But by circa 2005 and 2006, the convention industry had fully rebounded, back to pre-2000 levels, with the prospect of consistent future growth for the balance of the decade. That history and prospect could offer substantial assurance to those cities choosing to invest in new centers or expanded space that they would inevitably fill.⁴⁸

      But what if the steady growth scenario was not a full or accurate portrayal of convention demand? What if the figures the consultants quoted and relied on really provided a larger, more complex, and quite different picture of demand? And what if error and misinterpretation, built into the manner in which the demand measures were calculated, regularly led to faulty analyses and erroneous conclusions?

       Demand Realities

      Growth, in terms of the volume of annual conventions and tradeshows, volume of space used, and count of event attendees, has long been at the heart of the case for building ever more convention centers. Even when economic downturns and recessions have had a demonstrable impact on activity and attendance, industry representatives and consultants have contended it is a temporary situation—the convention business would inevitably return to steady, annual growth. The reality of demand, indexed by the same measures relied on by consultants, has been notably different.

      Counting Events

      Tradeshow Week’s annual Data Book has commonly been used as a source for the aggregate size and growth of the convention industry, both directly and as reported in the Center for Exhibition Industry’s regular “The Size of the Exhibition Industry” reports during the 1990s, regularly cited by industry consultants. The Data Book volume, at about three inches thick and a weight of five pounds, includes a detailed listing of every event in the U.S. and Canada using 5,000 or more square feet of exhibit space. Published in the fall prior to the events it includes, it serves as an index and calendar for future events. Thus, rather than counting events that have happened, it effectively provides a short-term forecast for the coming year. The Data Book’s summary analysis also includes information on anticipated exhibit space use and attendance. But those figures are available for only a fraction of the events included in the volume. Tradeshow Week typically calculates an average for the events that provide space and attendance estimates, and then multiplies the averages by the total (or subtotal) of events.

      The annual Data Book listings include both typical association conventions, such as the annual Congress of Cities of the National League of Cities, the annual meeting of the National Education Association, and the conference of the Association of Fundraising Professionals, and tradeshow events such as the National Hardware Show and the Produce Marketing Association’s Fresh Summit. These events utilize a range of venues, including hotels, trade marts, and convention centers. But the Data Book also includes (and counts in its totals) a wide array of public consumer shows. The book contained page after page of listings for local home and garden shows such as the Madison, Wisconsin, Home Expo, Maricopa County Home & Garden Show, Minneapolis Home & Garden Show, and North Iowa Home & Landscaping Show. They are joined by an array of local auto shows (the Dallas Auto Show, the Portland Rod & Custom Show), boat shows (the Lehigh Valley Boat Show, the Nashville Boat & Sports Show), and sports shows (the Chicagoland Children’s Expo, the Cincinnati Hunting & Fishing Show).

      These public or consumer shows often use convention center space. But unlike conventions and tradeshows, they serve an almost entirely local market, drawing residents from the immediate city or metropolitan area. They thus do not generate the visitor activity or spending that most convention centers are designed to produce. By including these local events together with conventions and tradeshows, the

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