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this leads to discriminatory economic and political practices, which may lead to a rise in violence and instability.¹⁷⁸ A “foreign aggression” such as sanctions also gives the regime an excuse for increasing the level of repression.¹⁷⁹

      Another explanation for the increase of repression is that the threat or application of sanctions has as a signal an encouraging effect on opposition groups and increases anti-government protests.¹⁸⁰ Economic shocks cause an uproar and may force the regime to apply repressive measures.¹⁸¹ Sanctions lead to an increase in the prices of loyalty and repression because members of the support coalition may support a challenger, and opposition groups may be strengthened.¹⁸² Since loyalty is harder to buy in short-term, autocrats tend to rely on repression,¹⁸³ especially when they lack legitimacy.¹⁸⁴ Gershenson et al. argue that the optimal way for an autocratic elite to respond to foreign pressure is to increase both repression and co-optation.¹⁸⁵ ←56 | 57→Escribà-Folch confirms that an autocratic ruler tends to increase spending in those sectors that benefit mainly his key constituencies when the budget is not severely affected by economic sanctions. Is the effect of sanctions on the budget higher, than the autocrat relies more on repression.¹⁸⁶ But not all leaders are able to use repression effectively. Especially in mixed regimes, leaders lack the legitimacy and ability to repress the opposition.¹⁸⁷ Sanctions might have an impact on third countries, too: Sanctions with the focus on human rights can improve the level of protection of human rights in countries that were not targeted.¹⁸⁸ They trigger a proactive behavior in non-sanctioned neighboring states.¹⁸⁹

2.6 Destabilizing

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