LITMIR.BIZ

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could not become part of the new economy, especially the pensioners, but also many others who had benefited from the now defunct socialist state, could barely eke out a living.

      This thumbnail sketch of my experiences in Russia is intended to convey a general sense of what I had witnessed. But it is the details of what I have observed that I hope will be of value to those who see an economic collapse looming ahead and want to plan in order to survive it.

      My Premise

      You may have guessed by now that an economic collapse is amazing to observe, and very interesting if described accurately and in detail. A general description tends to fall short of the mark, but let me try. An economic arrangement can continue for quite some time after it becomes untenable, through sheer inertia. But at some point a tide of broken promises and invalidated assumptions sweeps it all out to sea.

      One such untenable arrangement — the one on which continued US prosperity currently rests — assumes that it is possible to perpetually borrow more and more money from abroad to pay for more and more energy imports, while the price of these imports continues to double every few years. Free money with which to buy energy equals free energy, and free energy does not occur in nature. This must therefore be a transient condition. When the flow of energy snaps back toward equilibrium, much of the US economy will quite literally run out of fuel, and will be forced to shut down. This is but one such untenable arrangement; there are many others as well.

      I therefore take it as my premise that at some point during the coming years, due to an array of factors, with energy scarcity foremost among them, the economic system of the United States will teeter and fall, to be replaced by something that most people can scarcely guess at, and that even those who see it coming prefer not to think about. This stunning failure of the collective imagination is the specific problem this book seeks to address.

      The risk is there for all to see, and it is huge. Even if you happen to believe that the probability of economic collapse is low, it is the product of the two — the probability of it happening times the value of everything that is at risk — against which you should seek to insure yourself. In a nation that insures itself against loss of life and limb, car accidents, medical emergencies, fire, flood, accidents at sea and pratfalls resulting in litigation, such wanton disregard is most striking.

      Perhaps it is difficult for a people that attempt to quantify every kind of risk in terms of its monetary value to think about a type of risk that can only be compensated for through accepting a different living arrangement. Perhaps it is difficult for a nation that has not experienced war on its home soil in many generations to imagine a future that does not generally resemble the past. Americans still appear to see theirs as the land of free ice cream and perpetual sunshine — much evidence to the contrary — in a way that the Russians or the Germans or the Chinese decidedly do not. Or perhaps the force of the social convention that a modicum of optimism be required for one’s admission into polite company throws up an invisible perceptual barrier.

      Perhaps most importantly, America’s national mythology makes it anathema to think of collective failure. All failure is to be regarded as individual failure — something that happens to somebody else, or to you, but only if you happen to be unlucky or do not try hard enough. Fair enough: economic collapse will in fact happen for each of you individually, in turn. For some, like the retired schoolteacher in Santa Barbara who lives in a car with her cats, it has happened already. Certain others will have to wait their turn, until one day they find that the mansion is cold and dark, the Rolls Royce is out of gas, and the bank is out of money, so there is nothing left to do except mix really stiff drinks and sit around the fireplace.

      Whatever the causes of this failure of collective imagination happen to be, I believe I have found a way to break down this wall. My method is one of comparative analysis, taking the actual pre- and post-collapse conditions in the Soviet Union and comparing them to the hypothetical pre- and post-collapse conditions in the United States. I will focus on categories that are key for survival: food, shelter, transportation, education, finances, security and a few others. In general, whether post-collapse conditions for each of these categories are dire or relatively benign depends in great measure on how closely coupled the pre-collapse arrangement is to the smooth functioning of the rest of the economic system. Looking at each of these factors in turn will help focus the imagination on the salient details of each thing, rather than the vague big picture.

      Then, of each important thing in your life, you will be prepared to answer two very important questions: “Is it collapse-proof? ” and, if it is not, “What can I do to make it collapse-proof? ” If, for a given thing, the answers turn out to be “No” and “Nothing,” then the very important follow-up question should be: “How can I live without it?” Having obtained these answers, it will be up to you whether to act on them and how quickly. It takes a brave and independent nature to follow your own orders, rather than try to fulfill the expectations of the people around you. And it will take imagination and actual work, as well as a good deal of luck, to adequately collapse-proof yourself and your family.

      But even if the steps you take are largely symbolic, their value as mental preparation will not be. An economic collapse is the worst possible time to suffer a nervous breakdown, yet so often this is exactly what happens. Taking an unsentimental look at what is coming up can help put you at the top of your game at a time when everyone around you is reeling in shock and flailing about randomly. This will make you a very useful person, both to yourself and to others, in making the best of a bad situation. This is also something that you and I should realistically expect to be able to achieve.

CHAPTER 2

       Superpower Similarities

      OFFICIAL PROPAGANDA has always tried to portray superpower conflict as an obvious and inevitable consequence of the irreconcilable differences between the two sides. One’s own side was represented as the manifestation of all that is good and just in the world and the other as all that is evil and repressive. There was usually a catchy label to go with the description that tested well with the target audience, such as the “Imperialist Aggressor” or the “Evil Empire.” When you switched sides, the orientation of the propaganda you had just heard flipped automatically: it was like stepping through a mirror.

      It is axiomatic that in order for a contest to make an engaging spectacle, the contestants have to be evenly matched. A mock pugilistic contest between a schoolgirl and her pet kangaroo may provide amusement, but it cannot be regarded as proper sport. What we generally look for is a fair fight, or at least the semblance of one, and this requires that the two fighters weigh about the same, have similar training and be able to go on expertly punching and blocking for several rounds. They would probably turn out to have other things in common as well: a diet rich in red meat or a tendency to try solving many different kinds of problems by throwing punches. A given audience may decide to cheer one and boo the other, making the contest more interesting to watch, but that is irrelevant to the outcome.

      If a contest goes on for an extended period of time — in the case of the superpower contest, over three decades — it would appear safe to conclude that the contestants had been evenly matched. But we will probably never know for certain why the Soviet fighter chose to take a dive in the fourth round, because that certainly did not look like a proper knockout. It is also hard to understand why the American fighter concluded his little victory jig by kneeing himself in the teeth, or why he is now draped unconscious over the ropes and getting pummeled by some junior featherweights from the stands. And why is the Soviet fighter now seated back in his corner, laughing? It is never easy to give up the title of World Superpower Champion, especially when it is not being challenged, but this is ridiculous! What sort of sporting event is this anyway? Bring back the schoolgirl and the kangaroo!

      Turning

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