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Anders Milhoj
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Аннотация
Aimed at econometricians who have completed at least one course in time series modeling, Multiple Time Series Modeling Using the SAS VARMAX Procedure will teach you the time series analytical possibilities that SAS offers today. Estimations of model parameters are now performed in a split second. For this reason, working through the identifications phase to find the correct model is unnecessary. Instead, several competing models can be estimated, and their fit can be compared instantaneously.
Consequently, for time series analysis, most of the Box and Jenkins analysis process for univariate series is now obsolete. The former days of looking at cross-correlations and pre-whitening are over, because distributed lag models are easily fitted by an automatic lag identification method. The same goes for bivariate and even multivariate models, for which PROC VARMAX models are automatically fitted. For these models, other interesting variations arise: Subjects like Granger causality testing, feedback, equilibrium, cointegration, and error correction are easily addressed by PROC VARMAX.
One problem with multivariate modeling is that it includes many parameters, making parameterizations unstable. This instability can be compensated for by application of Bayesian methods, which are also incorporated in PROC VARMAX. Volatility modeling has now become a standard part of time series modeling, because of the popularity of GARCH models. Both univariate and multivariate GARCH models are supported by PROC VARMAX. This feature is especially interesting for financial analytics in which risk is a focus.
This book teaches with examples. Readers who are analyzing a time series for the first time will find PROC VARMAX easy to use; readers who know more advanced theoretical time series models will discover that PROC VARMAX is a useful tool for advanced model building.
Consequently, for time series analysis, most of the Box and Jenkins analysis process for univariate series is now obsolete. The former days of looking at cross-correlations and pre-whitening are over, because distributed lag models are easily fitted by an automatic lag identification method. The same goes for bivariate and even multivariate models, for which PROC VARMAX models are automatically fitted. For these models, other interesting variations arise: Subjects like Granger causality testing, feedback, equilibrium, cointegration, and error correction are easily addressed by PROC VARMAX.
One problem with multivariate modeling is that it includes many parameters, making parameterizations unstable. This instability can be compensated for by application of Bayesian methods, which are also incorporated in PROC VARMAX. Volatility modeling has now become a standard part of time series modeling, because of the popularity of GARCH models. Both univariate and multivariate GARCH models are supported by PROC VARMAX. This feature is especially interesting for financial analytics in which risk is a focus.
This book teaches with examples. Readers who are analyzing a time series for the first time will find PROC VARMAX easy to use; readers who know more advanced theoretical time series models will discover that PROC VARMAX is a useful tool for advanced model building.
Аннотация
Anders Milhøj's Practical Time Series Analysis Using SAS explains and demonstrates through examples how you can use SAS for time series analysis. It offers modern procedures for forecasting, seasonal adjustments, and decomposition of time series that can be used without involved statistical reasoning. The book teaches, with numerous examples, how to apply these procedures with very simple coding. In addition, it also gives the statistical background for interested readers. Beginning with an introductory chapter that covers the practical handling of time series data in SAS using the TIMESERIES and EXPAND procedures, it goes on to explain forecasting, which is found in the ESM procedure; seasonal adjustment, including trading-day correction using PROC X12; and unobserved component models using the UCM procedure.
This book is part of the SAS Press program.
This book is part of the SAS Press program.