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It does not construct scenarios, but describes evolutionary processes that are systematically based on the fact that life is stronger than death and that evolution seems to go from matter to spirituality. Evolution is the result of a relational mechanism between the components of life within Gaia that constantly oscillates between cooperation and competition. It is these oscillations that generate the need to “get out of the crisis”. The decisions that are taken are marked by recent excesses.
This form of futurology is called cybernetic because it looks at the world in motion and not in a static way. What gives us the sensation of chance are the components that we have not perceived.
Cybernetic futurology works in transdisciplinary mode. Working only on the long term, it eliminates the jolts of history.
For example, no matter how Henri IV changed his religion, history records that the stability of “Church/State” was a long journey that continues to this day, for we cannot progress without spirituality.
Scientists are combining their expertise to try to go further back in our history. This is important to understand us, since the future has its roots in our history. Everything, or almost everything, is a matter of system; in this case, we are in a clock whose hands are constantly moving forward, without ever returning to the starting point.
The short video that shows a huge piece of iceberg collapsing into the sea actually shows us the completion of a crack that started many years ago.
This is what is currently happening with global finance, whose foundations go back more than 10,000 years. It is cracking, making strange noises, and then repeated crises… It is functioning more and more poorly, but does not itself propose an alternative model because it only does what it knows how to do. It is not designed to meet any other expectations than the facilitation of primary exchanges between men. Other organs of our life together will have to take over from it or supplement its shortcomings.
1.2.3. The temporality of civilizations
We are beginning to know how civilizations are born and die. Of course, each story is different and contains its share of revolt and sadness. But there is a recurring theme.
In the beginning, there is a tribe that discovers a source of prosperity: water, a plant, a source of energy, an ore, a crossing point, etc. Often several elements at the same time. The tribe organizes itself to optimize the way of exploiting this source of prosperity which it trades with its neighbors.
To protect this source of prosperity, the tribe creates institutions to make the most of the source and to protect those who exploit it. This is how our current system protects property. These institutions also ensure that the greatest number of people benefit from the wealth created through small benefits.
But in the cosmos, and therefore on this earth, everything is in constant motion. The source of prosperity runs out or depreciates. Wealth dissipates. And the population demands its petty benefits. Institutions are called to witness, in vain. Rulers are unable to govern. Then, a pervert takes power by promising what he is unable to give, since the source of prosperity has dried up without hope of return. If he cannot keep his promises, he becomes a dictator and the system collapses, leaving the place to barbarians or an interminable lethargy.
These collapses are often characterized by a kind of destructive “swan song”: the elite abuses its power by overexploiting all remaining resources, giving itself the illusion of preserving its standing, a way of covering its refusal to face reality.
In the words of Arnold Toybee, a specialist in the fall of civilizations, “Civilizations die by suicide, not by murder”.
A similar process can be seen in the “great families”, those who have made their mark on their time and have accumulated wealth. There is the generation that creates, the one that believes and the one that crunches. The latter finds the wealth it has rather cumbersome and complicated to manage, so it lets it decay on the good advice of predators in ambush!
This sounds like a natural phenomenon, and indeed it is: to bring out a source of wealth, particular mental and behavioral dispositions are needed. It is possible to transmit our flame to a few generations, but rarely beyond that.
Life in nature is an eternal process of trial and error. Our DNA contains the traces of this process. A family is a living body just as a tribe and now a nation is. The “beings” who succeed one another over time have a memory that stores feedback so that each subsequent generation does not “reinvent the wheel”.
Our institutions are not designed to deviate from their role in the context that created them. Thus, they are a strength in the ascending phase of civilization, and then they become a liability. This is what makes changes in civilization dangerous, because a civilization cannot function without institutions.
Revolutions have the effect of breaking institutions, but they do damage and do not always lead to the right result. Even if the “next model” is clearly spelled out, it is difficult to avoid the chaos phase.
But the “next model” is rarely known. It is generally brought by the barbarians who impose their own by subjugating the fallen civilization. At first sight, this is not reassuring for the West. But what is the situation more specifically for Europe?
Europe, like the Middle East in its time, dominated the world for over 300 years. But now it is no longer the case. It is a collection of states that have been at war with each other. The countries of the South are weak links with their still active monarchical culture. The countries of the North have more cooperative governance structures. Germany, in its current form, is a recent structure and has already freed itself from the hierarchical model. It is better equipped to deal with the complex world that is coming at us.
Europe is not in a suicidal phase, but in a phase of renewal. Its challenge will be to make Europe without affecting the pride of each of its member countries. This process is stimulated by external threats.
Each country must do its part to make progress. For example, for France, it is a question of looking back at 800 years of centralization and the way in which its elite was formed, which inherited the flamboyant governing practices of the time of Louis XIV, Napoleon and de Gaulle. These monarchs had a vision and knew how to be demanding. But a sustainable organization cannot be built around the idea that extraordinary personalities are permanently available on our soil. We need a more realistic and less elitist model.
In order to “make a renaissance”, there must be opportunities for innovation that mobilize hope and desire. We must favor both the visionaries and the doers. In order not to wait a few centuries for our next monarch, we must do as our European neighbors have done: adopt a governance that goes from the bottom to the top, while being positive and demanding.
This is currently happening with renewable energy and the necessary digital redesign.
And then there has to be the spark that gets it started. Every geopolitical zone can look out for its spark.
For Europe, we have, for example, the renewal of its governance with the arrival of Mrs von der Leyen and her team of Commissioners. We also have Covid-19, which forces us to rethink the debt of States and the idea that we have of essential jobs.
1.3. Known risks of our model
The European model of society is probably not the worst one, since it serves as a reference for other parts of the world, which in fact shape their own model. But it has shortcomings that we never talk about and that we will have to examine.
1.3.1. No tolerance thresholds
The so-called “Western” model was born at the end of the 18th century in Europe