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I., Ker, K., Edwards, P. et al. (2015). The knowledge system underpinning healthcare is not fit for purpose and must change. BMJ https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.h2463.

      In ancient times diseases were attributed to supernatural causes, spirits and demons. Treatments involved spells and prayers, or the wearing of amulets, which were intended to drive the malign forces from the patient [4]. Theories gradually evolved towards biological and physical causes of disease, with treatments involving minor surgery and drugs (usually based on plant extracts, minerals and metals). In Western medicine, one of the most influential of these theories was the doctrine of the four humours. It held that good health was enjoyed when four humours (the fluids: blood, phlegm, black bile and yellow bile) were in balance, with an excess of one humour causing disease [5]. Treatment for illness focused on restoring the balance by removing some of the excess humour from the body. This could be achieved by bloodletting (cutting open a vein or by applying a leech), or by losing fluid with a purgative or blistering the skin. This treatment was almost always harmful, although it often appeared to give short‐term relief of the symptoms of acute inflammations [6]. The most notable casualty of bloodletting was George Washington, first president of the United States. He was suffering from a serious upper respiratory tract infection, for which his doctors extracted approximately 2.4 L of blood over about 12 hours. He died 33 hours later, probably from the combination of the infection and the treatment given [5]. When the practice of bloodletting was challenged in the nineteenth century, a leading physician, William Stokes, commented that it was hard to believe ‘that the fathers of British medicine were always in error, and that they were bad observers and mistaken practitioners’ [7]. This cautionary tale of bloodletting suggests that theory and clinical experience may be unreliable guides to the effectiveness of a treatment.

      Another example of evidence from a series of patients is the discovery of insulin for the treatment of diabetes. This was undoubtedly ‘one of the most dramatic events in the history of the treatment of disease’ [16]. Research, in the late nineteenth century, had shown that removal of an animal's pancreas ‘produced severe and fatal diabetes’ [17]. Over the following 30 years many researchers tried to isolate a pancreatic extract that could control blood sugar levels. They had little success, as the extracts had only a transitory effect on blood sugar and caused unacceptable side effects (vomiting, fever and convulsions) [18, 19]. In October 1920 Frederick Banting, a young Canadian doctor, was preparing a lecture on the pancreas [16]. The research he was reading led him to think that the active ingredient was being destroyed by the digestive enzymes in the pancreas, and that this could be prevented by ligating the pancreatic ducts. Banting began the experiments with extracts of the ligated pancreas in May 1921 [17]. By January 1922 a purified extract had been obtained. This proved successful in treating a 14‐year‐old boy, and in February a further six patients were treated with equally favourable results [16]. The discovery was announced in April to international acclaim; the Nobel prize was awarded to Banting, and one of his colleagues, Dr Macleod, in 1923 [16].

      The comparison of groups also helped promote a technique for the prevention of smallpox. In the 1700s smallpox was a leading cause of death, with many of those who survived suffering disfigurement and blindness [22]. The available preventive measure was to infect children with puss or scab material from smallpox victims, a process known as variolation. Despite reports that it was beneficial [23], there was widespread concern that variolation might carry a greater

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