Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns - Thomas N. Bulkowski

Скачать книгу

confirmed double top means it's time to sell. If you do nothing else except trade those two chart patterns, you could make money. Buy when a double bottom appears (or any bullish pattern) and sell when a double top confirms (or any bearish chart pattern). The ride between those two might be bumpy, so you'll need to know how to use a stop‐loss order.

      Add bells and whistles—such as making sure the market is trending upward and the industry to which the stock belongs is also trending upward—and you'll have a smoother ride. Having both of those on your side increases your chance of a successful trade. Complete the picture with a bullish stock aching to rise, and you're good to go. I'll discuss this setup later in this chapter.

      Let me share with you a few ideas on how I make my trading choices. I'll tell you about a few swing trading setups that work and then discuss the winners of performance contests.

      When I have cash I want to put to work in the stock market, I'll flip through 600 charts on my computer, looking for anything that interests me (that takes less than an hour unless I find something interesting). Figure 1.1 shows a weekly chart that caught my attention. Why?

      Figure 1.1 The pattern at A and B leads to a strong move higher.

      Ideally, a bottom fishing expedition will yield an investment that turns into a momentum play when the stock soars and continues well into the stratosphere.

      Some will claim that bottom fishing is a risky play, and they are right. But I argue that momentum trading is even riskier. Only you can decide which practice is best suited for your trading style. I use both, but I prefer fishing because as my portfolio has grown in size, I don't need to trade as much. I can devote my time to living instead of playing video games watching candlesticks form on the 5‐minute scale.

      Returning to the figure, the stock started out low on the left of the chart and climbed to the right, doubling in value. If you were to ride this chart like a rollercoaster, you might exit the ride and stumble around, feeling queasy.

      When I looked at Figure 1.1, I wasn't thinking of buying the dip, but that's what I saw. Price moved horizontally at A (if you ignore the few downward price spikes, the bottom of the portion is reasonably flat) followed by a strong and quick plunge to B. After B, the stock recovered quickly to C and bobbled up and down, eventually rising into the clouds at D.

      I put the chart aside and flipped to the next stock that caught my attention. Figure 1.2 shows what I found (weekly chart, again). My software (which I wrote) groups charts by industry so I can get a sense of how the industry is behaving. I had moved from advertising (Figure 1.1) to airline stocks (Figure 1.2).

Graph depicts a diving board on the weekly scale leads to the stock climbing strongly.

      Figure 1.2 A diving board on the weekly scale leads to the stock climbing strongly.

      Point A is a flat base, lasting a long time (over 2 years). A plunge follows, taking the stock down fast to B, and then it recovers. This time, the stock zipped up (B to C) but went sideways in 2016 for about 6 months (C) before taking off and flying to D in a nice straight‐line run that saw the stock triple in price.

      The stock moved sideways again at E (another flat base, but shorter), dropped to F (not a fast drop), and soared to G. The EFG move is a pattern similar to the prior two (this chart and the prior figure), but not as clean looking nor as successful.

      The pattern in Figure 1.1 happened in 2013–2014. Pattern AB (Figure 1.2) happened in 2013–2016, and pattern EF occurred in 2018. In other words, I'm finding the same pattern in different years, which is a good thing (potentially different market conditions). Flat base, sudden drop, and fast move higher: Could this be a winning setup that's worked for years?

      After finding a number of these patterns, I hunted for those that failed to perform as expected. Figure 1.3 shows an example of a failure (weekly chart). Notice that the flat base at A started in late 2014, the same as the other two charts. Price moved horizontally at A, dropped swiftly to B, and recovered but only to C before it tumbled to make a lower low at D. After D, though, the stock did take flight and delivered (a pun on the package delivery service, in case you missed it), which was reassuring if you buy and hold but terrifying for a swing or position trader who bought before C.

      I looked for other examples and eventually catalogued my results. The research led to a pattern I call a diving board. I hunt for it on the weekly scale, but I've noticed variations of this pattern on the daily charts, too.

Graph depicts the diving board fails to act as expected.

      Figure 1.3 This diving board fails to act as expected.

      Figure 1.4 shows the same pattern in the advertising industry (which is suspicious because it's the same industry as Figure 1.1) but a different period (2018). The large breakaway gap up in early November (A) was because of third quarter results, which the market liked (hence the bullish gap). After that, price moved horizontally at B and made a strong push lower to C, followed by a headline‐fetching rise up to G.

      Along the way, earnings came out and helped momentum push the stock up (D and E). Near the top, earnings at F sent the stock lower, but only for a day. Perhaps the weak quarter was a warning of a coming trend change. At H, the market disliked earnings and seemed to confirm an end to the upward move, at least for a time.

Graph depicts the diving board is on the daily chart.

      This chart, on the daily scale, is similar to Figures 1.1 and 1.2. You can use these historical charts to formulate how to trade the pattern. If you can time your entry near C, then you can ride price back up to the base

Скачать книгу