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Killed because she witnessed a drug sale between boyfriend, Kyle Butler, and dealer who didn’t want identity known: 20% (NOTE: Butler is missing too; related victim?).

      • Kidnapped/killed by antisocial perpetrator, serial kidnapper or killer; SM raped and murdered or kept for torture and sex, eventual murder: 60%–70%.

      • Unknown motive: 7%.

        Relevant details:

      • SM’s credit cards have not been used in two days; FM is on cards and has access.

      • Quick Byte Café has video of possible suspect following her. Manager has preserved original and uploaded to cloud. Tiffany Monroe. CS has copy.

      • Under expectation-of-privacy laws, FM cannot access her phone log.

      • Perpetrator possibly put tracking device on bike to follow her.

      • Mulliner’s house just on market, no prospective buyers yet to case the location for kidnapping potential.

      The detective’s carefully shaved face wore a frown. “The hell all this come from, Chief?”

      The nickname rankled but Shaw ignored it; he was making headway. “The information?” He shrugged. “Facts from her father, some legwork of mine.”

      Wiley muttered, “What’s with the percentages?”

      “I rank things in priority. Tells me where to start. I look at the most likely first. That doesn’t pan out, I move to the next.”

      He read it again.

      “They don’t add up to a hundred.”

      “There’s always the unknown factor—that something I haven’t thought of’s the answer. Will you send a team to the park, Detective?”

      “Alrightyroo. We’ll look into it, Chief.” He smoothed the copy of Shaw’s analysis and shook his head, amused. “I can keep this?”

      “It’s yours.”

      Shaw set the cell phone and the chip of reflector in front of Wiley.

      His own phone was humming with a text. He glanced at the screen, noted the word Important! Slipped the mobile away. “You’ll keep me posted, Detective?”

      “Oh, you betcha, Chief. You betcha.”

       12.

      At the Quick Byte Café, Tiffany greeted him with a troubled nod.

      It was she who’d just texted, asking if he could stop by.

       Important! …

      “Colter. Come here.” They walked from the order station to the bulletin board on which Frank Mulliner had tacked up Sophie’s picture.

      The flyer was no longer there. In its place was a white sheet of computer paper, 8½ by 11 inches. On it was an odd black-and-white image, done in the style of stenciling. It depicted a face: two eyes, round orbs with a white glint in the upper-right-hand corner of each, open lips, a collar and tie. On the head was a businessman’s hat from the 1950s.

      “I texted as soon as I saw, but whoever it was might’ve taken it anytime. I asked everybody here, workers, customers. Nothing.”

      The corkboard was next to the side door, out of view of the camera. No help there.

      Tiffany gave a wan smile. “Madge? My daughter? She’s pissed at me. I sent her home. I don’t want her here until they find him. I mean, she bikes to work three, four times a week too. And he was just here!”

      “Not necessarily,” Shaw said. “Sometimes people take Missing posters for souvenirs. Or, if they’re after the reward themselves, they throw it out to narrow the field.”

      “Really? Somebody’d do that?”

      And worse. When the rewards hit six digits and up, reward seekers found all sorts of creative ways to discourage competition. Shaw had a scar on his thigh as proof.

      This eerie image?

      Was it an intentional replacement, tacked up by the kidnapper?

      And if so, why?

      A perverse joke? A statement?

      A warning?

      There were no words on it. Shaw took it down, using a napkin, and slipped it into his computer bag.

      He looked over the clientele, nearly every one of them staring at screens large and screens small.

      The front door opened and more customers entered, a businessman in a dark suit and white shirt, no tie, looking harried; a heavyset woman in blue scrubs; and a pretty redhead, mid-twenties, who looked his way quickly, then found an empty spot to sit. A laptop—what else?—appeared from her backpack.

      Shaw said to Tiffany, “I saw a printer in your office.”

      “You need to use it?”

      He nodded. “What’s your email?”

      She gave it to him and he sent her Sophie’s picture. “Can you make a couple of printouts?”

      “Sure.” Tiffany did so and soon returned with the sheets. Shaw printed the reward information at the bottom of one and tacked it back up.

      “When I’m gone, can you move the camera so it’s pointed this way?”

      “You bet.”

      “Be subtle about it.”

      The woman nodded, clearly still troubled about the intrusion.

      He said, “I want to ask if anybody’s seen her. That okay?”

      “Sure.” Tiffany returned to the counter. Shaw detected a change in the woman; the thought that her kingdom here had been violated had turned her mood dark, her face suspicious.

      Shaw took the second printout Tiffany had made and began his canvass. He was halfway through—with no success—when he heard a woman’s voice from behind him. “Oh, no. That’s terrible.”

      Shaw turned to see the redhead who’d walked into the café a few minutes ago. She was looking at the sheet of paper in his hand.

      “Is that your niece? Sister?”

      “I’m helping her father find her.”

      “You’re a relative?”

      “No. He offered a reward.” Shaw nodded toward the flyer.

      She thought about this for a moment, revealing nothing of her reaction to this news. “He must be going crazy. God. And her mother?”

      “I’m sure. But Sophie lives here with her father.”

      The woman had a face that might be called heart-shaped, depending on how her hair framed her forehead. She was constantly tugging the strands, a nervous habit, he guessed. Her skin was the tan of someone who was outside frequently. She was in athletic shape. Her black leggings revealed exceptional thigh muscles. He guessed skiing and running and cycling. Her shoulders were broad in a way that suggested she’d made them broad by working out. Shaw’s exercise was also exclusively out of doors; a treadmill or stair machine, or whatever they were called, would have driven a restless man like him crazy.

      “You think something, you know, bad happened to her?” Her green eyes, damp and large, registered concern as they stared at the picture. Her voice was melodic.

      “We don’t know. Have you ever seen her?”

      A squint at the sheet. “No.”

      She shot her eyes down toward his naked ring finger. Shaw had already

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