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The Insider's Dossier. Andrew Packer
Читать онлайн.Название The Insider's Dossier
Год выпуска 0
isbn 9781630060213
Автор произведения Andrew Packer
Жанр Ценные бумаги, инвестиции
Издательство Ingram
But even as the share price started to rise, insiders continued to buy shares. Indeed, there’s been insider buying by corporate officers throughout the year — each and every month. Some of those buys have been option exercises, but many have been open market buys.
Although shares rose over 55 percent through 2013, as long as insiders remain bullish, there’s still the strong likelihood that the market-beating gains will continue at this small-cap energy firm.
Insider Advantage No. 3: 453 Percent Gains on This Misunderstood Company
On May 30, 2013, Tesla Motors (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk bought 1,084,129 shares at an average price of $92.24 per share. Four months later, by the end of September 2013, shares were up a staggering 84.25 percent. Not bad for a 125-day return!
But that wasn’t Musk’s first buy-in on the open market. On October 3, 2012, the CEO made a million-dollar bet by buying 35,398 shares at $28.25 per share. The returns on those shares, through the end of September 2013, rose a staggering 453.48 percent!
While shares of the automaker are down a bit from their September highs, it’s important to note that this level of market-beating returns is rare. It’s the kind of surprise move in a stock that shocks just about everyone except those who have their finger on the company’s pulse on a daily basis — i.e., its executive officers.
What’s more, anyone looking at Tesla based on its fundamentals (myself included) would have reached the conclusion that the stock was overpriced both times the CEO bought in. Anyone looking at the technical charts of the stock at the time Musk bought would have stayed on the sidelines too.
All of the above examples are recent, and they confirm earlier academic studies on the relative outperformance of insider trading. Indeed, as a variety of academic and financial journals have reported, bullish insiders tend to beat the average return of the stock market by anywhere from 6 to 10 percent per year.
Of course, the actual percentage may vary, depending on the sector, the overall return of the stock market, and so forth. For instance, a study from UCLA and NYU nearly a decade ago revealed that a group of insider buyers in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors beat the average stock market indexes by 9.6 percent in the six months following their purchases.
I’ve found that weighing in the few trades that underperform across every investment sector, investors today should expect about an 8 percent relative outperformance versus the overall stock market.
In 2013, with the S&P 500 index up more than 23 percent, the average insider-based buy returned over 30 percent. In some of the market’s down years, the relative outperformance of insider buys meant smaller losses.
Worst-case scenario, it’s closer to the low range of 6 percent per year. But that’s still a huge level of outperformance! Over time, this advantage is clear. An investor with a $50,000 nest egg in index funds earning the market average of 8 percent per year will end up with $246,340 in 20 years.
That’s not bad.
But with the worst-case scenario of outperforming the market by only 6 percent per year above the market average makes for a 14 percent annual return. That same $50,000 compounded over 20 years will grow to be more than three times larger! The total comes out to just over $800,000!
That’s the real power of investing alongside insiders. It’s not just any single trade; it’s the power of using this tool repeatedly to beat the market year after year.
This strategy is safe. And over time, it’s powerful.
In the next chapter, we’ll look at the illegal side of insider trading. It accounts for less than a fraction of 1 percent of insider trades, yet it’s the one that gets the headlines and scares investors away from this powerful strategy.
2
The Difference Between Legal and Illegal Insider Trading
“It takes a crook to catch a crook.”
— FDR about Joseph P. Kennedy (father of JFK) on why
he was appointed inaugural chairman of the SEC.
Now that you’ve seen the benefits of insider trading and what it can do for your portfolio, remember that all of the prior examples are not only safe ways to increase your wealth, but they’re legal ways as well.
The SEC has gone out of its way to ensure that insiders have the opportunity to voice their opinion on their firm’s prospects with their wallet. At the same time, the SEC comes down hard on insiders who use their knowledge to profit before the public can.
That’s because the SEC has two critical criteria for illegal insider trading. An illegal insider trade is one that is done with materially important information. This could be something like whether or not a company will make its estimated earnings for the next quarter, or whether a massive dividend or share buyback is going to be implemented.
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