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      Proof beyond a reasonable doubt, therefore, is proof of such a convincing character that you would be willing to rely and act upon it without hesitation in the most important of your own affairs. However, it does not mean an absolute certainty.

      For every piece of Scientific Advice offered in this book, I asked myself, “Is this advice of such a convincing character that I would be willing to rely and act upon it without hesitation in the most important of my own affairs?”

      I realize that it’s always possible that new data may contradict what I’ve written. I look upon potential future contradictions with anticipation, not fear. I love to learn. I welcome the submission of additional data and/or arguments that contradict my findings.

       WHAT YOU’LL ACTUALLY REALIZE FROM APPLYING THIS BOOK’S ADVICE

      In truth, you will probably do better than double your odds of success, but I figured that you wouldn’t believe me if I told you. Studies of Eureka! Ranch clients (mega-brands and small businesses) indicate that through EXTREMELY DISCIPLINED application of the Scientific Advice on these pages, most clients move from 15 percent odds of success with their marketing message to 45 to 60 percent—in effect TRIPLING to QUADRUPLING their odds. How much improvement you realize depends on your DEDICATION to learning and your DISCIPLINE in applying the learning to your situation.

       NO STATISTICAL KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED

      I’ve translated all statistical terms into common English. The result is that even if you suffered from allergic reactions to high school math, you will easily grasp all advice on these pages.

      The Technical Appendix provides specific details on my research sources. I realize that not everyone is as much of a data geek as I am. However, I strongly recommend that you read some of the technical references cited.

      HINT: When you find yourself becoming DEFENSIVE—fighting or rejecting the advice I’ve articulated—you have a responsibility to yourself and your company to seek deeper understanding. With the Internet, accessing the academic articles is easy. If it’s a proprietary Eureka! Ranch study, e-mail me at [email protected], and I’ll provide more details.

       THE ADVICE YOU REJECT OFFERS THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR HELPING YOU MEASURABLY IMPROVE YOUR MARKETING SUCCESS RATE!

       IT’S SYSTEMS—THINKING SYSTEMS—THAT CAUSE MARKETING FAILURE

      Dr. W. Edwards Deming is considered one of the “fathers” of modern management methods. His work on Total Quality has spawned 6-Sigma, Lean Engineering, and countless other variations. He was instrumental in helping Japan become a world economic power. If you’ve ever been in awe of the quality of a Japanese car, you’ve experienced Dr. Deming’s legacy.

      I have a small personal connection to Dr. Deming that no doubt influences my opinions. The first company in the United States to work with Dr. Deming was Nashua Corporation, where my father was director of Central Engineering. At the time, I was a chemical engineering student at the University of Maine. I’ll never forget my father’s excitement as he spoke of Dr. Deming’s principles and processes. He spoke in wonder at the near-miraculous results he witnessed.

      Eventually NBC did a story on what was happening at Nashua Corporation, leading to a team from the Ford Motor Company and others traveling to the company’s headquarters in Nashua, New Hampshire.

      My dad’s excitement infected me. Over the years I’ve sought to apply Deming’s Scientific Method to sales, marketing, and innovation. This book is my learning to date; however, there is much to be done.

      Dr. Deming found that most failures were failures of the system. He estimated that 94 percent of a worker’s performance is determined by the system they work within, and the remaining 6 percent by their individual effort. The conclusion was clear: To measurably improve success rates, we must focus on improving the SYSTEM.

       94 percent of failures are caused by the SYSTEM. 6 percent are due to worker error.

      Most work on quality has been focused on the factory floor. It’s been focused on the reduction of mistakes. In the revised edition of his last book, The New Economics, Dr. Deming argued that this was just the start. He estimated that improvements in production quality were 3 percent of the potential for improvement. He felt that fully 97 percent of the big gains were waiting in areas such as business strategy, planning, personnel, marketing, sales, etc.

      Deming reported that most energy spent on quality had been focused on the factory floor on eliminating defects. And, though this is important, he warned, “Absence of defects does not necessarily build business, does not keep the plant open. Something more is required.”

      The “more” he then described is, in my opinion, the JOB OF MARKETING. It’s the job of marketing to lead the development process. It’s up to marketing to provide a vision for the engineers and scientists. Customers don’t invent new products or services. As Deming said,

      The customer generates nothing. No customer asked for electric lights. There was gas and gas mantles, which gave good light. No customer asked for photography. No customer asked for the telegraph, nor for a telephone. No customer asked for an automobile. We have horses: What could be better? No customer asked for pneumatic tires. Tires are made of rubber. It is silly to think of riding on air.

      It’s marketing’s responsibility to imagine the future. It’s marketing’s job to blend knowledge of customers, consumers, manufacturing, engineering, finance, and even legal, and to boldly, bravely invent BIG IDEAS for revolutionizing their industry.

      Deming said that management and leaders must “govern their own future, not be merely victims of circumstance.” He went on to say that preparation for the future includes “constant scanning of the environment (technical, social, economic) to perceive need for innovation, new products, new service, or innovation of method. A company can to some extent govern its own future.”

      In recent years, quality efforts, and in particular 6-Sigma efforts by Motorola, GE, and others, have become popular tools for improving competitiveness. Sadly, the sales and marketing departments have resisted involvement. I recall a visit with a senior vice president of marketing at one of the United States’ hundred biggest companies. As we stood near the elevator at their New York City headquarters, I commented on a sign advertising the company’s 6-Sigma program. In response to my question regarding how the quality program was going she replied, “It’s not a marketing thing—it’s for production and operations.”

      Wrong! In today’s marketplace, everyone must improve quality. For sales and marketing, quality is measured by the effectiveness and efficiency of marketing and sales programs.

      The primary “systems” that are relevant to sales and marketing quality are THINKING SYSTEMS. With continuous improvement in thinking systems, you realize continuous improvement in your marketing response rates, trial rates, and sales success.

      When thinking systems are faulty, then no matter how hard you work or how much money you invest, failure is a reproducible certainty. In my thirty years of experience, I’ve concluded that Deming’s observations on quality also apply to marketing:

       94 percent of MARKETING Failures are caused by faulty THINKING SYSTEMS. 6 percent are due to worker error

      The aim of the Eureka! Ranch is to translate the wisdom of Deming to the world of Sales, Marketing, and Innovation. It’s not easy. The first challenge is finding what metric to measure. With our Innovation efforts, it took us nearly a year to create and validate a system for measuring the quality of ideas on a real-time basis during group brainstorming. This measurement tool has allowed us to transform our system—resulting in a 10X STEP CHANGE IMPROVEMENT in the quantity and quality of ideas we invent. But that’s not the subject of this

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