LITMIR.BIZ

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will not keep still, and suspecting that maybe – however much they count – they will not capture the essence of the question they are asking. Things have to keep static if you’re going to count them: that’s probably why the first statisticians were known as ‘statists’. But real life isn’t still.

      How, for example, can businesses measure what they are worth, when value is increasingly ephemeral – encompassing things which go way beyond traditional balance sheets? How can we measure our national or local success when our measuring rods are so inadequate, and yet so important to our politicians? Yet without measuring rods, it is hard to know whether we are making any progress.

      But if politicians have a difficult time, it is nothing to what is happening in the business world, as managers struggle to find ways of measuring customer loyalty, brand reputation or staff morale. And as they do so, Internet companies which have never made a profit and which sell intangible products, rush past them up the Wall Street indices. When the balance sheets of a company like Microsoft show assets worth only 6 per cent of its stock market value, they need to find an answer.

      It’s all a bit like a computer game. What really matters can’t be counted, but it’s a much worse situation than that. If you make the attempt but measure the wrong thing, it isn’t just wasted effort. It can destroy everything you’ve worked for. Like the school league tables that make teachers concentrate on getting borderline pupils through at the expense of their weaker classmates. Or the hospital waiting lists that fell because only quick simple problems were treated. It’s a familiar story, just as unemployment statistics bear no relation to the number of people who actually want to work. It all comes down to definitions: governments prefer to count people claiming benefits rather than unemployed people. To count things, you first have to define them in measurable ways, and magically the system can manipulate the figures by narrowing the definition.

      This amounts to a kind of crisis. We need answers, but we also know that what is most important to our lives simply can’t be pinned down like a still life. We can’t measure happiness directly, any more than we can measure God or measure life, but we can measure some of its symptoms, and some of the symptoms of its absence. Which is why a city like Seattle started measuring success by the number of vegetarian restaurants, or why Strathclyde started measuring success by the number of golden eagles. It is why schools are trying to measure their pupils’ self-esteem, why investors are measuring the ethics of their investments – and why companies like Toys Я Us and Shell are pouring resources into measuring the knowledge and contentment of staff, communities and stakeholders.

      A century and a half ago, the followers of the philosopher Jeremy Bentham were dashing around the country in their stagecoaches to measure everything they possibly could – from the health of slum inhabitants to the religious feelings of children – coming home with tables of figures with which to challenge the world. Now there is a new generation of iconoclasts who are determined to solve the measurement problem. You don’t see them at work. They are safely behind their calculators or drawing up tables of comparison in just the same way. This book is about them, because – like scientists reaching into the unknown – they may change our lives for ever.

      III

      What we can’t do is leave things as they are – all of those numbers are making us misunderstand things. They make us ignorant of the world past the ends of our noses, measuring things means defining them and reducing them. Still life is dead life. In fact, in Italian, still life is ‘natura morta’. We lose some of the magic in it. Every time a new set of statistics comes out, I can’t help feeling that some of the richness and mystery of life gets extinguished. Just as individual stories of passion and betrayal get hidden by the marriage statistics, or the whole meaning of the Holocaust gets lost in the number 6,000,000. There is a sort of deadening effect, a distancing from human emotion and reality. Not much, but just enough for it to matter – like Jedediah Buxton trying to understand Shakespeare’s masterpieces by counting the words.

      Magic is about breaking out of categories, words and definitions, and I should declare an interest – I want a bit more of it. Measuring things takes away the childish sense of wonder where things are really possible. A serious-looking man with a white coat and clipboard – one of those disinterested people who counts a lot but feels little – will have to put me right, and tell me off for filling people’s minds with airy-fairy nonsense.

      But don’t blame me. I was plummeted into this frame of mind as a teenager when I came across a poem by D. J. Enright called ‘Blue Umbrellas’, which in a few short lines summed up the poverty of definitions:

      The thing that makes a blue umbrella with its tail –

      How do you call it? You ask. Poorly and pale Comes my answer. For all I can call it is peacock.

      Now that you go to school, you will learn how we call all sorts of things;

      How we mar great works by our mean recital.

      You will learn, for instance, that Head Monster is not the gentleman’s accepted title;

      The blue-tailed eccentrics will be merely peacocks; the dead bird will no longer doze

      Off till tomorrow’s lark, for the letter has killed him

      The dictionary is opening, the gay umbrellas close.

       Bizarre measurement No. 1

       Guz

       (Middle Eastern measurement of variable length. One Guz = 27 inches in Bombay, 37 inches in Bengal, 25 inches in Arabia and 41 inches in Iran.)

      Americans who claim to have been abducted by aliens: 3.7 million

      Speed of London traffic in 1900: 12 mph

      Speed of London traffic in 1996: 12 mph

      Average time US patients are allowed to speak before being interrupted by their doctors: 18 seconds

       Chapter 1 A Short History of Counting

      Know then thyself, presume not God to scan,

      The proper study of mankind is man.

       Alexander Pope

      I have often admired the mystical way of Pythagoras, and the

      secret magic of numbers

      Sir Thomas Browne, Religio Medici

      I

      It was 12 September 1904. The Kaiser was on the throne, the Dreadnought was less than a few rivets on the ground and Freud was in his Vienna consulting rooms, thinking the unthinkable. In Berlin, the unthinkable seemed to be becoming real.

      As many as 13 of the city’s greatest scientific minds were convinced. The leading psychologists, veterinary surgeons, physiologists – even the director of the Berlin Zoo – had come away from the demonstration shaking their heads, worrying slightly for their professional reputations. Yet they had just signed the paper: the horse they had spent the day watching was not responding to signals from its owner when it demonstrated its considerable mathematical powers. Clever Hans, in other words, was officially not a circus act. He really was clever.

      Clever Hans sounds like the title of a Grimm fairy tale or one of Freud’s more spectacular patients. Actually he was a horse belonging to a retired maths teacher called Wilhelm von Ostein, who believed passionately in its ability to do complicated multiplication and division – even fractions – tapping out the answer with its hoof and manipulating sets of numbers up to six decimal places. What’s more, by converting his answers into numbers, Hans could also read, spell and identify musical tones. Zeros he communicated with a shake of the head.

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