Inside the Crystal Ball - Harris Maury

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22

Canice Prendergrast and Lars Stole, “Impetuous Youngsters and Jaded Old-Timers: Acquiring a Reputation for Learning,” Journal of Political Economy 104, no. 6 (1996): 1105–1134.

23

H. Hong, J. Kubik, and A. Solomon, “Securities Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts,” Rand Journal of Economics 31 (2000): 122–144.

24

Karlyn Mitchell and Douglas K. Pearce, “Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panels of Economists,” North Carolina State University Working Paper 004, March 2005.

25

Owen A. Lamont, “Macroeconomic Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters,” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 48 (2002): 265–280.

26

Laster, Bennett, and Geoum, “Rational Basis in Macroeconomic Forecasts.”

27

Andy Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha, “Forecast Evaluation with Cross-Sectional Data: The Blue Chip Surveys,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Economic Review 88, no. 2 (Second Quarter, 2003): 17–32.

28

Clive W. J. Granger, “Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?” Journal of Applied Econometrics 11 (1996): 455–473.

29

Peter J. Ferderer, Bibek Pandey, and George Veletsianos, “Does Winning the Blue Chip Forecasting Award Affect Herding Behavior? A Test of the Reputation Model,” March 8, 2004, Macalester College Department of Economics.

30

Helge Berger, Michael Ehrmann, and Marcel Fratzscher, “Geography or Stills: What Explains Fed Watchers' Forecast Accuracy of US Monetary Policy?” European Central Bank Working Paper Series 695 (November 2006).

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