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      Knowledge is only one part of the equation, though. Top-performing sales organizations have the will and the means to translate macro-shifts into real top-line impact fast. Often, they are able to launch tactical, opportunistic sales programs that deliver differentiated growth in a challenging environment.

      For example, as the 2008 financial crisis unfolded, South Korean auto manufacturer Hyundai concluded that economic uncertainty would make consumers skittish about committing to major purchases such as cars. On January 2, 2009, the company launched the Hyundai Assurance Program, which allowed consumers to return their cars with no penalty if they lost their jobs or suffered any other involuntary loss of income. The program was free for the first 12 months after purchase, and there were no restrictions on types of customers. The company actually negotiated exclusive private-label use in the United States of a guarantee scheme provided by a Canadian company called Walkaway.

      In the immediate wake of the program’s announcement, automotive consumer-research organization Edmunds reported that “purchase intent shot up 15 percent … and has remained at 7 percent above its seasonal norm.” Such was the popularity of the offer that Hyundai augmented it with a limited-term offer to cover three months of payments while the customer looked for a job. Longer term, Hyundai became the only major car manufacturer to actually increase US sales in 2009, and research cited the Assurance Program as one of the major factors behind customers’ decision to buy a Hyundai.2

      Forward-looking sales management can be strategic as well as tactical. The first-mover advantage created by forward-looking sales plans drives sales in areas where competitors have yet to arrive. This enables the pioneer to build share and enjoy high margins, at least for a while. For example, a major IT company that we discuss in detail below has a forward-looking sales function whose sole purpose is to accelerate the acceptance of next-generation technology among early adopters to give the company an edge within a few years.

      As we have said, sales executives don’t just monitor economic trends; there are also megatrends such as climate change that create enormous challenges and opportunities across industries and markets. Of course, corporate strategists and marketing departments adjust their organization’s long-range positioning (in capabilities and products) to address needs created by these trends. But forward-looking sales departments also study how they can tap into changing consumer attitudes caused by such megatrends.

      A maker of heating and air-conditioning equipment, for example, realized that perceptions about climate change and sensitivity to energy prices already have a real impact on when and why consumers decide to buy new equipment. The company has developed a model that incorporates different scenarios for energy prices and other key drivers of energy demand. Each scenario includes implications for different types of customers, including each client’s likely demand and which products to highlight.

      For example, in a scenario with steeply increasing oil prices, more customers are expected to purchase heating systems based on alternative fuels or add modules to use solar energy. Those interdependencies have been modeled based on market and customer data. The results are translated into sales targets for different product groups and insights to guide sales force tactics and define incentives. The model is frequently updated to ensure it incorporates fresh data and thinking. There are also periodic reality checks to make sure that the program continues to reflect likely scenarios. This process allows the company to turn a very broad trend into practical insights for the sales team and gives it a leg up in a competitive marketplace.

      Invest Ahead

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