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      The Demographic Transition

       Maria Eugenia COSIO ZAVALA

       El Colegio de México, Mexico, and Paris Nanterre University, France

1.1. Introduction

      The demographic transition refers to the passage from a regime of high mortality and high fertility to a regime with low mortality and reduced fertility. In-depth work¹ has brought to light a large heterogeneity of contexts and variation in stages, such as the demographic situation at the start of the transition, the anteriority of the decline in mortality or fertility, medical progress, urbanization, the pace of the main demographic changes (mortality, nuptiality, fertility and migrations) and the period when the transition has been completed. We cannot, therefore, speak of a single model of demographic transition, but of a great diversity which can be explained by economic, social, cultural and institutional factors, across time and space.

Demographic transitions began in European countries in the 18th century, and afterward spread widely to countries populated by European emigrants, such as Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Canada, Argentina and Uruguay. From the mid-20th century onwards, they reached the majority of Asian and Latin American countries, and later Southeast Asia, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa. Demographic transitions were at first related to the “modernization” of economies and societies, but this explanation has proven insufficient. Many authors have highlighted other dimensions, such as spoken language, religion, education, family models, the value of children, social interactions, intergenerational relationships, and social, racial and gender inequalities.

      The concepts developed offer an extremely rich field of study for the history of the world’s population, spanning more than three centuries. Indeed, far from a single model of demographic transition – which would be a replica of the evolutions of European countries – temporalities, as well as the variety of demographic changes along the 20th and 21st centuries in developing countries, show a plurality of models.

      In this chapter, we will successively analyze the genesis of the demographic transition model and its generalization, the current trends in population growth, as well as the demographic transitions around the world, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean. The main results of the chapter should provide an in-depth understanding of the relationship between population and development.

1.2. Genesis of the demographic transition

      The earliest reference to the consequences of a decline in birth and death rates was first described as a “demographic revolution” by Rabinowicz in 1929 (Adeev 2011, p. 9). Landry chose this reference as the title for his famous work (Landry 1982). Notestein introduced the term “transitional growth” as a reference to the moment when mortality declined, provoking strong population growth, followed by a decline in fertility² (Notestein 1945, p. 46). For Notestein, the demographic transition was associated with modernization, urbanization and industrialization; the development of education and public health; increased living standards; fertility control and the adoption of new values (Notestein 1945, p. 57). Davis would in turn publish an article called The World Demographic Transition in 1945. According to Chesnais, the original theory of demographic transition, in its European (Landry) or North American (Davis, Notestein) versions, was achieved by 1953 (Chesnais 1986b, p. 1061).

Demographers agree to evoke the “passage from a demographic situation characterized by high mortality and high fertility with a ‘high’ quasi-equilibrium to a situation of low mortality and low fertility with a ‘low’ quasi-equilibrium” (Meslé et al. 2011, p. 482) and significant population growth between the two phases. The first demographic transition took place as early as the 18th century, in north-western Europe, when the fight against major epidemics and infant mortality spread toward the whole continent (Meslé and Vallin 1995). In turn, fertility fell from a level of more than five children per woman to about two children per woman. The case of France is an exception, since the reduction in fertility began in the mid-18th century, whereas in other European countries, it started in 1870 (Vallin 2003). It should be noted that, on average³, the European population multiplied by four in 150 years (Chesnais 1986a; Vallin 2003, pp. 28–30).

      By analyzing 67 countries between 1720 and 1984, Chesnais wanted to show that the demographic transition is a general theory, “reduced to a few central empirically testable propositions and [which] can be enriched on certain points that the history of facts deems essential for the understanding of the mechanisms at work” (Chesnais 1986b, p. 1061). He further mentions:

      [T]hree paradigms, which can be drawn from the founding texts: the principle of antecedence in the decrease in mortality; the two-phase reproductive transition module (limitation of marriages, and consequent limitation of births); and the influence of the access to modern economic growth (in the sense of Kuznets) on the triggering of the secular decline in fertility. (Chesnais 1986b, p. 1061)

      In addition, he stresses:

      [T]he insufficiencies of the original theory and therefore the necessary amendments [which] concern, for their part, three aspects: the concept of pre- and post-transitional balance, the absence of international

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