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In an age where companies and financial institutions are keenly focused on managing the financial risk of their operations, the implementation of quantitative methods and models has been of tremendous help. Tools such as VaR, credit VaR, risk-adjusted returns, and scenario analyses have given institutions the means to quantify and understand their risk profiles. However, the focus on quantitative risk management, while important, can sometimes be over-emphasized–at the expense of logic and experience. At its core, the successful management of risk is still largely an «art.» The Simple Rules of Risk takes a fresh look at the qualitative aspects of risk management. It also considers how qualitative approaches can make optimal use of the mathematical aspects of risk management to create the most effective framework possible.

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Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.

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Over the quarter of a century with which this book is concerned, the UK has had an extraordinarily diverse experience of monetary policy and monetary regimes. Monetary policy has been transformed, from attempts to control broad money from the supply side with the use of indirect controls on banks' lending, to an almost exclusive focus on interest rates in a context of inflation targeting. The exchange rate has at times been fixed, at other times almost perfectly flexible, and at other times again more or less managed. Meanwhile the real economy has experienced large variations in growth, together with what most observers have seen as a sharp rise and then a gradual decline in the NAIRU; inflation has varied between 25% and 2%. This is a book about the making of monetary policy in the UK, about how and why the monetary regimes changed over the period, and how and why the monetary authorities took the decisions they did about monetary growth, interest rates and the exchange rate. It includes separate chapters on monetary targeting, on policy in the second half of the 1980s, on the UK's brief membership of the ERM, on inflation targeting between 1993 and 1997, and on inflation targeting with instrument independence since 1997. It also contains a detailed analysis of the factors that influenced interest rate decisions and monetary policy with particular reference to the exchange rate, and an investigation of the nature and reasons for interest rate smoothing in the UK. «David Cobham has written an excellent history of British monetary policy over the final quarter of the 20th Century. His judgement of the political and economic context is sound and sensible. It is well written with clear and helpful tables and charts. Besides the careful historical reporting, Cobham adds some valuable extra research of his own, notably on the interaction between monetary policy and the exchange rate (Chapter 9) and on the reasons for interest rate 'smoothing' (Chapter 10).» Charles Goodhart, Norman Sosnow Professor of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics «…an essential guide covering everything the reader could ever want to know about the UK's turbulent monetary history over the last quarter century» Charles Bean, Chief Economist, Bank of England

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A simple guide for using Japanese candlesticks correctly, and profitably Candlesticks have gotten a lot of attention lately, but few traders truly know how to use them wisely and profitably. Without the proper context, candlestick charting won't work. In this book, technical analysis expert Felipe Tudela shares candlestick creator Sokyu Honma's Great Market Cycle theory. With the Great Market Cycle, candlesticks reveal their powerful and simple logic and give traders the insight and context they need to use them successfully. Using these insights, readers will be able to trade each market phase in accordance with his or her own personal strategy. Felipe Tudela (Paris, France) is a researcher and specialist in technical analysis, as well as President of the Center of Financial Research in Paris.

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Written by leading market risk academic, Professor Carol Alexander, Pricing, Hedging and Trading Financial Instruments forms part three of the Market Risk Analysis four volume set. This book is an in-depth, practical and accessible guide to the models that are used for pricing and the strategies that are used for hedging financial instruments, and to the markets in which they trade. It provides a comprehensive, rigorous and accessible introduction to bonds, swaps, futures and forwards and options, including variance swaps, volatility indices and their futures and options, to stochastic volatility models and to modelling the implied and local volatility surfaces. All together, the Market Risk Analysis four volume set illustrates virtually every concept or formula with a practical, numerical example or a longer, empirical case study. Across all four volumes there are approximately 300 numerical and empirical examples, 400 graphs and figures and 30 case studies many of which are contained in interactive Excel spreadsheets available from the the accompanying CD-ROM . Empirical examples and case studies specific to this volume include: Duration-Convexity approximation to bond portfolios, and portfolio immunization; Pricing floaters and vanilla, basis and variance swaps; Coupon stripping and yield curve fitting; Proxy hedging, and hedging international securities and energy futures portfolios; Pricing models for European exotics, including barriers, Asians, look-backs, choosers, capped, contingent, power, quanto, compo, exchange, ‘best-of’ and spread options; Libor model calibration; Dynamic models for implied volatility based on principal component analysis; Calibration of stochastic volatility models (Matlab code); Simulations from stochastic volatility and jump models; Duration, PV01 and volatility invariant cash flow mappings; Delta-gamma-theta-vega mappings for options portfolios; Volatility beta mapping to volatility indices.

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Written by leading market risk academic, Professor Carol Alexander, Quantitative Methods in Finance forms part one of the Market Risk Analysis four volume set. Starting from the basics, this book helps readers to take the first step towards becoming a properly qualified financial risk manager and asset manager, roles that are currently in huge demand. Accessible to intelligent readers with a moderate understanding of mathematics at high school level or to anyone with a university degree in mathematics, physics or engineering, no prior knowledge of finance is necessary. Instead the emphasis is on understanding ideas rather than on mathematical rigour, meaning that this book offers a fast-track introduction to financial analysis for readers with some quantitative background, highlighting those areas of mathematics that are particularly relevant to solving problems in financial risk management and asset management. Unique to this book is a focus on both continuous and discrete time finance so that Quantitative Methods in Finance is not only about the application of mathematics to finance; it also explains, in very pedagogical terms, how the continuous time and discrete time finance disciplines meet, providing a comprehensive, highly accessible guide which will provide readers with the tools to start applying their knowledge immediately. All together, the Market Risk Analysis four volume set illustrates virtually every concept or formula with a practical, numerical example or a longer, empirical case study. Across all four volumes there are approximately 300 numerical and empirical examples, 400 graphs and figures and 30 case studies many of which are contained in interactive Excel spreadsheets available from the accompanying CD-ROM . Empirical examples and case studies specific to this volume include: Principal component analysis of European equity indices; Calibration of Student t distribution by maximum likelihood; Orthogonal regression and estimation of equity factor models; Simulations of geometric Brownian motion, and of correlated Student t variables; Pricing European and American options with binomial trees, and European options with the Black-Scholes-Merton formula; Cubic spline fitting of yields curves and implied volatilities; Solution of Markowitz problem with no short sales and other constraints; Calculation of risk adjusted performance metrics including generalised Sharpe ratio, omega and kappa indices.

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In 2007 over 400 million equity option contracts were traded but it is a volatile market, prices are ever changing with supply and demand – the only certainty is that they will change. With little knowledge or experience, an uninformed decision can quickly drain capital. This book explains equity options from absolute basics, assuming no prior knowledge of the subject. It shows traders starting out and already using the exchanges how to enhance their equity portfolio by using the whole range of investment opportunities and tools available. This will help investors to reduce their costs, enhance returns and manage price risk with certainty and precision. Equity Options Explained is a practical guide to trading equity options, supported by Liffe (part of the NYSE Euronext exchange group). Written by Bill Beagles, a well known, highly experienced trader and trainer, creating a unique combination in this area. Bill is still highly active in the markets, which brings a practical perspective to his training and the books.

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Fully revised and updated from the hugely popular first edition, this book is an accessible and convenient one-volume introduction to international capital markets, ideal for those entering or planning to enter investment banking or asset management. As well as serving as an invaluable reference tool for professionals already working in the industry looking to extend their knowledge base it will also benefit all those working in trading, sales and support roles. Describing how the key products and markets work, who the principle participants are and their overall goals and objectives, Andrew Chisholm provides a thorough overview of the global capital markets. The book covers a wide range of equity, debt, foreign exchange and credit instruments as well as the principal derivative products. In a step-by-step fashion, making extensive use of real world cases and examples, it explains money markets, foreign exchange, bond markets, cash equity markets, equity valuation techniques, swaps, forwards, futures, credit derivatives, options, option risk management and convertible bonds. An extensive glossary also explains concisely many of the ‘jargon’ expressions used in the financial markets. Boasting an international focus, examples are drawn from major international markets around the world. It makes extensive use of numerical examples and case studies to help explain a wide range of cash and derivative products used in the capital markets business. It covers both debt and equity products and includes new material on credit products such as collateralized debt obligations and credit derivative structures; equity fundamental analysis, portfolio theory and convertible bonds. Market data has been fully updated from the first edition and recent events such as the ‘credit crisis’ are discussed.

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The financial markets are made up of people from very diverse backgrounds but whether by long or short term investment these market participants all have a desire to win by varying degrees. Many market participants, especially short term traders are often too interested in the release of some fundamental statement or some rumor or the latest bank recommendations than in the trading price of the asset which leads them to trade and fail because of emotions based trading. The daily price movements, the patterns, the volatility that appear on charts, are for whatever reason, the results of the actions of the crowd. To avoid making decisions based on heightened emotions, it is necessary to create your own plan based on your own analysis. This book has been developed to demonstrate how a few relatively straight forward techniques can create a plan that does not rely on outside investment recommendations and therefore takes the emotions out of trading. The book demonstrates how to interpret the market price action in the shape of forms or patterns and Japanese candlesticks to help you: Find markets that are changing from bullish to bearish and from bearish to bullish Locate entry and exit points Monitor the position for signs of change. The book provides a series of charting techniques involving the use of candlesticks as graphical representations of market price actions in the Foreign Exchange markets. It presents methods of chart technical analysis for medium to long-term investing, in a market where despite strong returns when compared with other asset types, it is difficult to realize a profitable return. The title does not dwell on already-known 'signals' represented by candlestick formations, but concentrates instead on how to confirm these signals by applying a variety of confirmation techniques which form a step-by-step process through the chapters of the book to finish by 'Putting It All Together'.

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Giving IT professionals in financial services firms a rounded and comprehensive grounding in their knowledge of their industry, this book offers a primer on the major financial instruments, transactions, and processes, as well as a sound knowledge of the principles of good IT management in the industry. The book gives readers a clear understanding of equities, bonds, currencies, listed derivatives and OTC derivatives. It explains transactions in those instruments and the requirements of business systems that process these transactions. Transactions covered include (inter-alia) agency and principal purchases and sales, loans and deposits, repos and reverse repos, stock loans; and also the Sharia-compliant 'Islamic' transactions that may be used as alternatives to interest bearing transactions. Andrew Bradford gives an introduction to how investment firms are regulated; offers an understanding of the STP (Straight-through-Processing) concept following the trade cycle for the transactions from order through to execution through pre-settlement to final settlement; covers basic accounting procedures for the transactions; and conveys the basic principles of good IT management in the investment industry.

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