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      Publishing details

      HARRIMAN HOUSE LTD

      3A Penns Road

      Petersfield

      Hampshire

      GU32 2EW

      GREAT BRITAIN

      Tel: +44 (0)1730 233870

      Email: [email protected]

      Website: www.harriman-house.com

      First published in Great Britain in 2014

      Copyright © Harriman House 2014

      The right of C. Thomas Howard to be identified as Author has been asserted in accordance with the Copyright, Design and Patents Act 1988.

      9780857193254

      British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

      A CIP catalogue record for this book can be obtained from the British Library.

      All rights reserved; no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the Publisher.

      This book may not be lent, resold, hired out or otherwise disposed of by way of trade in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published without the prior written consent of the Publisher.

      No responsibility for loss occasioned to any person or corporate body acting or refraining

      to act as a result of reading material in this book can be accepted by the Publisher or by the Author.

      Praise

      “Professional money managers and investment advisers alike will find Tom Howard’s thought-provoking exploration of the practical implications of investing in a world where emotional crowds dominate the determination of prices to be an interesting and engaging read.”

      Jim Peterson, Chief Investment Officer, Charles Schwab Investment Advisory, Inc.

      “By rethinking the basic challenges of equity investing from a behavioral viewpoint, Professor Howard has arrived at some totally fresh insights into what it takes to be an outstanding long-term investor. Though aimed at professionals in the field of investment management, many of the ideas presented in this highly readable book will be invaluable to a wider audience.”

      Andrew Cox, Director, Janus Capital Group

      “Tom Howard masterfully bridges the gap between the insights of behavioral finance and the demands of portfolio management, and he explains behavioral data investing in a forthright and engaging style. Advisors and investors alike stand to benefit from this book.”

      Philip Lawton, Ph.D., CFA, Research Affiliates, LLC

      “There has been a glaring hole in the study of behavioral finance, namely, how to incorporate its caveats and principles into successful investment management. Behavioral Portfolio Management helps to fill the gap left behind by theorists with its creation of a unique framework for investment managers.”

      Jason A. Voss, CFA Institute Behavioral Finance Content Director, author of The Intuitive Investor, retired investment manager

      “Tom Howard was the most inspirational and influential professor in my master’s programme. His proven ability to harness behavioral factors and rigorously apply them to the portfolio management process makes this book a fascinating read!”

      George Spentzos, Managing Director, Société Générale, London, UK

      “Tom Howard demonstrates how the traditional tools of the investment industry, like modern portfolio theory and investment style boxes, combine with investor emotions to distort portfolios and asset prices. This book can teach you the proper strategy, consistency, and conviction to harness these distortions in your portfolio for higher returns and avoid the Cult of Emotion.”

      John Nofsinger, Ph.D., Seward Chair in Finance, University of Alaska, author of The Psychology of Investing

      “This book is a game-changer; as early adopters of Behavioral Portfolio Management, we found this to be an oasis in the desert of Modern Portfolio Theory. I know of no better way to beat the market then to do what this book tells me to do; and no book says it better than this. The reasons for our outperformance transcend time and trump the competition, ‘rational’ or otherwise. Of course we are emotional investors--now we can profit from that!”

      Karl Frank MA, MBA, MSF, CFP, President, A&I Financial Services LLC

      “Dr. Tom Howard has taken the principles of Behavioral Theory and applied them to investing in his new book Behavioral Portfolio Management. Beyond theory he has applied these precepts to actual portfolios with considerable success. He examines ‘What If’ we take advantage of human behavior and use that knowledge to enhance portfolio returns. An excellent read that takes us to the next stage in the investing arena.”

      Philip Hartwell, CFP, Royal Alliance

      “Traditional finance assumes that investors are rational. Behavioral finance rejects that notion and studies how emotions and psychology affect investors and the financial markets. Most academics have rejected behavioral finance because of the perceived lack of practical applications. In this book, Dr. Howard shows how his methodologies can incorporate behavioral finance concepts into a very successful investment strategy. His evidence may give behavioral finance the academic credibility it deserves.”

      Maclyn Clouse, PhD, Professor of Finance, Daniels College of Business, University of Denver

      About the author

      Dr. Howard is co-founder of AthenaInvest, a Greenwood Village-based SEC Registered Investment Advisor. He led the research project that resulted in Behavioral Portfolio Management, the methodology which underlies AthenaInvest’s patented investment approach. Since 2002 he has managed Athena Pure Valuation/Profitability, Athena’s signature equity offering, which has been recognized by PSN and Barron’s as a top US active equity portfolio. He oversees Athena’s ongoing research, which has led to a number of industry publications and conference presentations. Dr. Howard currently serves as CEO, Director of Research, and Chief Investment Officer at Athena.

      Dr. Howard is a Professor Emeritus at the Reiman School of Finance, Daniels College of Business, University of Denver, where for over 30 years he taught courses and published articles in the areas of investment management and international finance. For many years he presented stock analysis seminars throughout the US for the American Association of Individual Investors, a national investment education organization headquartered in Chicago. Dr. Howard has been a guest lecturer at SDA Bocconi, Italy’s leading business school and at Handelshojskole Syd in Denmark and was a 2004 summer lecturer in international finance at EMLYON in France.

      He consulted with a number of firms, most recently First Data Corp and Janus Capital Group, and served for ten years on the Board of Directors for AMG National Trust Bank N.A., a financial counselling and investment management firm headquartered in Denver.

      After receiving his BS in Mechanical Engineering at the University of Idaho, Dr. Howard worked for three years at Proctor & Gamble as a production and warehouse manager. He then entered Oregon State University where he received an MS in Management Science, after which he received a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Washington.

      Preface

      Emotions play a central role in financial markets – this is an uncontroversial statement for most market participants. However, for some it borders on intellectual heresy. They argue that, while emotions are present, their impact is mitigated by the arbitrage activities of rational investors and thus markets correctly price assets. But markets do not correctly price assets and indeed emotions trump arbitrage. Emotion is the proverbial elephant in the room of financial theorists. It is time to

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