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slowly when unemployment changes. Monetary policy produces real effects on output and employment only if some prices are stable and do not adjust instantly.

      Thirdly, Keynesians suppose that prices and, especially, wages respond slowly to changes in supply and demand, resulting in shortages and surpluses, especially of labour.

      Contrary to monetarists's view Keynesians do not think that the typical level of unemployment is ideal. With them unemployment is more of a problem than inflation. Keynesians also state that macroeconomic fluctuations significantly reduce economic well-being, that recessions or depression are economic maladies, not efficient market responses to unattractive opportunities, as the monetarists suppose.

      Hence Keynesians advocate activist stabilization policy to reduce the amplitude of the business cycle, which they rank among the most important of all economic problems. So, Keynesians developed the notion of a fiscal/monetary mix to control spending and the balance of payments simultaneously. Well-timed changes in taxes and government spending were to be balanced to control the economy. If this macro measures didn't work out as intended, the goverment should administer price and wage controls. Keynesians identified themselves as engineers who adjust the controls and, when necessary, design new controls to maintain just the right mix of policies.

      In order to know how to develop policies, Keynesians worked out forecasting models with hundreds of equations. These models are processed on powerful computers simulating possible changes in economy affected by different policy actions.

      Monetarists are critical of these models, and prefer stable policy rules that reduce variability and uncertainty for private decision makers. They suppose that government should maintain the long-run stability, and not interfere into economic life too often. Monetarists see such efforts as frequently destabilizing.

Слова и выражения:

      activist – активист; активный политик

      adjust – приспосабливать, регулировать

      administer – применять, вводить, внедрять

      advocate – защищать, поддерживать

      aggregate – совокупный

      amplitude – амплитуда

      curve – кривая (линия)

      equation – уравнение

      fiscal – фискальный, имеющий отношение к государственной казне

      fluctuation – колебание

      forecast – прогноз; прогнозировать

      hence – отсюда

      ideal – идеальный

      impact – удар, воздействие, импульс

      instantly – моментально

      interfere – вмешиваться, мешать

      maintain – поддерживать

      malady – болезнь, расстройство

      opportunity – возможность, шанс

      process – обрабатывать

      respond – отвечать

      response – ответ

      shortage – нехватка, недостаток (чего-либо)

      simulate – симулировать

      simultaneously – одновременно

      state – утверждать

      surplus – избыток

      typical – типичный

      unattractive – непривлекательный

      variability – изменчивость, вариативность

      Keynes John Maynard – Джон Кейнс, известный американский экономист

      a great variety – значительное разнообразие

      fine-tune – (тонко) настраивать

      majority – большинство

      short-run – краткосрочный

      contrary to – в противоположность

      more of a problem than – (является) большей проблемой, чем

      well-being – благосостояние

      rank among – занимать положение среди

      fiscal/monetary mix – смесь монетаристских и фискальных мер

      well-timed – хорошо спланированный во времени

      as intended – как было задумано, как предполагалось

      identify as – отождествлять (с кем-либо)

      critical of – критически настроенный (к)

      long-run – долгосрочный

      Exercise 5

      Answer the questions:

      1. What theory has the Keynesians developed?

      2. What is aggregate demand affected by, in Keynesians' opinion?

      3. What are the most important public decisions affecting aggregate demand?

      4. How has the Keynesians' attitude towards monetary measures changed recently?

      5. What do changes in aggregate demand have the greatest short-time impact on?

      6. What do Keynesians think about the typical level of unemployment?

      7. What is their opinion on macroeconomic fluctuations?

      8. What economic policies do Keynesians advocate?

      9. Who do Keynesians identify themselves as?

      10. What processes do forecasting models simulate?

      Forecasting and Econometric Models

      An econometric model is a tool that helps economists forecast future developments in the economy. Econometricians study past relationships between variables such as consumer spending and gross national product, and then try to forecast how changes in some variables will affect the future course of others.

      To make such calculations econometricians need an economic model, and a theory of how

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