Investing All-in-One For Dummies - Eric Tyson

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the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, interest rates were at rock-bottom levels. And then they went even lower in some countries. In fact, in a number of European countries and Japan, interest rates have at times been negative — as in less than zero.

      What the heck is a negative interest rate, and what exactly does that mean? Normally, when an investor buys a government bond for, say, $10,000, the bond issuer pays the investor interest — such as 3 percent per year. So, the investor would get paid $300 of interest annually. Suppose the governments of Germany, Japan, or Switzerland issue $10,000 bonds that have a negative interest rate — at, say, minus 1 percent per year. In that case, those bond buyers would pay the government bond issuer $100 per year for the privilege of holding their bond!

      Why on earth would an investor ever willingly agree to buy a bond with a negative interest rate? It can happen in a country where there’s low demand for borrowing money (due typically to a weak economy) and where investors are more concerned with preserving their money than they are with risking and attempting to grow their money. By literally paying a person or company to borrow money, negative rates may encourage people to take risks/actions that can help the economy.

      Exploring the role of the Federal Reserve

      When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board speaks (currently, it’s Jerome Powell; before him, it was Janet Yellen; and before her, it was Ben Bernanke), an extraordinary number of people listen. Most financial market watchers and the media want to know what the Federal Reserve has decided to do about monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. The Federal Reserve Board comprises the 12 presidents from the respective Federal Reserve district banks and the 7 Federal Reserve governors, including the chairman who conducts the Federal Open Market Committee meetings behind closed doors eight times a year.

      

What exactly is the Fed (as it’s known), and what does it do? The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy. In other words, the Fed influences interest-rate levels and the amount of money or currency in circulation, known as the money supply, in an attempt to maintain a stable rate of inflation and growth in the U.S. economy.

      The Fed, from time to time and in different ways, attempts to influence the supply of and demand for money and the cost of money. To this end, the Fed raises or lowers short-term interest rates, primarily by buying and selling U.S. Treasury bills on the open market. Through this trading activity, known as open market operations, the Fed is able to target the Federal funds rate — the rate at which banks borrow from one another overnight.

      The senior officials at the Fed readily admit that the economy is quite complex and affected by many things, so it’s difficult to predict where the economy is heading. If forecasting and influencing markets are such difficult undertakings, why does the Fed exist? Well, the Fed officials believe that they can have a positive influence in creating a healthy overall economic environment — one in which inflation is low and growth proceeds at a modest pace.

      Over the years, the Fed has come under attack for various reasons. Various pundits accused former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan of causing speculative bubbles, such as the boom in technology stock prices in the late 1990s or in housing in the early 2000s. Some economists have argued that the Federal Reserve has, at times, goosed the economy by loosening up on the money supply, which leads to a growth spurt in the economy and a booming stock market, just in time to make El Presidente look good prior to an election. Conveniently, the consequences of inflation take longer to show up — they’re not evident until after the election. In recent years, others have questioned the Fed’s ability to largely do what it wants without accountability.

      

Many factors influence the course of stock prices. Never, ever make a trade or investment based on what someone at the Federal Reserve says or what someone in the media or some market pundit reads into the Fed chairman’s comments. You need to make your investment plans based on your needs and goals, not what the Fed does or doesn’t do.

      What the heck is “quantitative easing”?

      More often than not, these critics, who typically and erroneously claim to have predicted the 2008 crisis, have an agenda to appear smarter than everyone else, including the Fed. Some of these pseudo-experts are precious metals hucksters and thus like to claim that the Fed is going to cause hyperinflation that will impoverish you unless you buy gold, silver, and the like.

      In one popular video from 2010 that has millions of views on YouTube, the author claims the following using goofy cartoonish characters:

       The Fed is printing a ton of money to implement quantitative easing (QE).

       QE is being done to stop deflation (falling prices), but the Fed is too dumb to realize that consumer prices are rising, not falling.

       The Fed has been wrong about everything the past 20 years.

       Then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is unqualified for his job because he has no business experience, has no policy experience, and has never held an elected office. He is a fool who’s been wrong about everything during his tenure in office and has already blown up the American economy and is now working on blowing up the world economy.

       The government is stupidly buying Treasuries from Goldman Sachs at grossly inflated prices (rather than buying Treasuries from the Treasury department). Goldman Sachs is ripping off the American people.

      Although it’s stunning in and of itself that this video has been watched millions of times, even more amazing and disturbing is how many mainstream media and other websites and outlets have promoted and recommended the video, making little if any effort to fact-check and reality-check its contents. Here we set the record straight and advance your understanding of what quantitative easing really is and why the Fed is doing it. We go through the video’s main assertions point by point:

       The Fed is not printing a ton of money (expanding the money supply) to implement QE. Retail money market assets and bank deposits could increase, for example, if individuals decided to hold more cash. Demand for these highly liquid assets can come from folks around the world, so increased demand for the U.S. dollar during times of stress can lead to the growth of M2 (the leading measure of the money supply). Changes in money supply are complicated.

       The Fed is well aware that there’s inflation right now but has been concerned that the rate has been quite low by historical standards and that there were signs of accelerating deflation during the severe recession.

       If the Fed had been wrong about everything the past 20-plus years, our economy would be in shambles and our stock market wouldn’t have appreciated more than 1,400 percent since 1990. Before the COVID-19 pandemic

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